Temperley vs San Martín San Juan: match statistics

Temperley creates more chances at home: home average xG is 1.49 versus San Martín’s 1.03 on the road, and the hosts average 11.4 shots (3.8 on target) compared to the visitors’ 9 (2.86 on target). Despite this, the hosts are inconsistent — in the last five matches overall they have a form of ddlld (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), scoring only 2 goals and conceding 8, which yields 0.6 points per match. San Martín arrives in better form: in the last 5 they are lddww (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), scoring 5 and conceding 5 with 1.6 points per match; as visitors they concede 1.14 goals per match on average, less than Temperley at home (1.8). Temperley has 40% of home matches with a clean sheet, but simultaneously a negative home goal difference (-3), while San Martín has an away goal difference of -2 and only 14% clean sheets, indicating a balanced matchup. Overall I predict a draw as the most likely outcome, estimating probabilities of 30% for the home team, 40% for a draw and 30% for the visitors.

Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Temperley 71% and San Martín 57%, a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. Temperley creates more chances: season xG 1.50 vs 1.03 for San Martín, averaging 12.29 shots and 5.0 shots on target per match versus 9.0 and 2.86 for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Temperley has xG 1.85 and conceded an average of 1.6 goals (8 conceded in 5 matches), while San Martín has xG 1.46 and scored an average of 1.0 goal (5 goals in 5 matches), which increases the likelihood of goal exchange. Additionally, season averages show Temperley scores 1.14 goals while San Martín concedes 1.14, and San Martín scores 0.86 while Temperley concedes 0.86, so the numbers favor both teams scoring; based on this I recommend a "yes" bet (68% vs 32%).

Temperley and San Martín show a strong trend toward matches with at least 2 goals: the rate of games over 1.5 goals is 71% for the home side and 71% for the visitors, while the combined projected xG is 2.46 (1.32 xG for Temperley and 1.14 xG for San Martín). Temperley generates 1.50 xG at home and averages 12.29 shots (5.0 on target), whereas San Martín posts 1.03 xG and 9.0 shots (2.86 on target), indicating a home offensive edge and realistic goal potential. Goal-scoring stats confirm this: Temperley averages 1.14 goals, San Martín 0.86, and both teams scored in 71% and 57% of matches respectively (combined trend ~64%), which raises the likelihood of at least two goals in the match. The 2.5 line looks less certain — season Over 2.5 is 43% for Temperley and 29% for San Martín (approx. 36% on average), and the projected combined xG of 2.46 is slightly below the 2.5 threshold, so I prefer Under 2.5 as the safer option. Over 3.5 is virtually non-existent (percentage of games >3.5 is 0% for both teams), therefore the best and strongest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5.

Temperley shows a clear advantage in the first half: they led at the break in 71% of matches (5 of 7), score an average of 0.71 goals in the first half and concede none before the break (0.0 conceded on average, 100% clean sheets to half-time). This is corroborated by xG and shot data — the hosts have an xG of 1.50 versus San Martín’s 1.03 and average 5.0 shots on target per match versus 2.86, i.e. they create materially more chances. When leading at half-time, they collect 17 points from such situations this season (an average of 2.43 points), which indicates a strong conversion of a first-half lead into a full-time win. Nevertheless, Temperley concedes an average of 0.86 goals in the second half and their matches finish as both-teams-to-score in 71% of cases, so I also assign some probability to a draw or a San Martín turnaround.