Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlético Zacatepec: match statistics
Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlético Zacatepec: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tepatitlán de Morelos play Atlético Zacatepec in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match date is 4 April 2026 at 04:00. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Tepatitlán de Morelos: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Atlético Zacatepec: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.35 and concedes 0.95 goals per match. Atlético Zacatepec scores 1.29 and concedes 1.93. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tepatitlán de Morelos 50%, Atlético Zacatepec 61%. Over 2.5: Tepatitlán de Morelos 35%, Atlético Zacatepec 54%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Tepatitlán de Morelos has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.41. Tepatitlán de Morelos: 13.2 shots per match, Atlético Zacatepec: 12.3.
Match halves
Tepatitlán de Morelos: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.78. Atlético Zacatepec: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Tepatitlán de Morelos: 76-90+ (22 goals). Atlético Zacatepec: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I recommend the home win (1) because Tepatitlán de Morelos holds a clear advantage in key home vs. away metrics over Atlético Zacatepec. The hosts concede 0.8 goals per home match on average, while the visitors concede 2.17 goals away; in the last 5 fixtures Atlético have shipped 16 goals compared to 6 conceded by Tepatitlán, highlighting the visitors’ defensive frailty. Offensively Tepatitlán scores 1.53 goals per home game with xG 1.74, 5.13 on-target shots and 14.93 total shots, whereas Atlético averages 1.25 goals, xG 1.30, 3.67 on-target shots and 11.58 shots per match. Additionally, the hosts record 40% clean sheets and a +11 home goal difference, while the visitors have 17% clean sheets and -11 away goal difference, further amplifying Tepatitlán’s edge and justifying higher probability for the home side.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tepatitlán de Morelos | Atlético Zacatepec | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 0.8 pts / match - Atlético Zacatepec
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
1.35 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 1.29 goals / match - Atlético Zacatepec
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 103% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.95 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 1.93 goals / match - Atlético Zacatepec
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 73% of matches (29 of 40 matches), while Atlético Zacatepec keeps a clean sheet in 14% (4 of 28 matches).
Atlético Zacatepec scores in 71% of matches (20 of 28 matches), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 35% (14 of 40 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Tepatitlán de Morelos
Over / Under — Atlético Zacatepec
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.27 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 1.07 pts / match - Atlético Zacatepec
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atlético Zacatepec - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -6 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (22 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +13 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tepatitlán de Morelos
Atlético Zacatepec
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tepatitlán de Morelos | Liga | Atlético Zacatepec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.30 | 2.85 | ▲ 3.21 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 35% | 53% | • 54% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 35% | 25% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | • 73% | 74% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 80% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tepatitlán de Morelos 0 - 1 - 0 Atlético Zacatepec. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlético Zacatepec?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tepatitlán de Morelos 2:0 Atlético Zacatepec. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlético Zacatepec?
Tepatitlán de Morelos score 1.35 goals per game on average and Atlético Zacatepec 1.29. The Ascenso MX average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's matches and 61% of Atlético Zacatepec's.
What form are Tepatitlán de Morelos and Atlético Zacatepec in?
Over the last 5 games Tepatitlán de Morelos have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Atlético Zacatepec 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlético Zacatepec?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlético Zacatepec: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.