Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Correcaminos UAT: match statistics
Tepatitlán de Morelos is in significantly better form and boasts superior statistics in home matches. The hosts win 36% of their home games, maintaining a positive goal difference (+3) and a high average xG (1.71), indicative of effective offensive play. Correcaminos UAT perform very poorly on the road – just 11% wins, a disastrous goal difference (-13), and an average of 2.33 goals conceded per match. The visitors also have a very low average of shots on target (2.44) and xG (1.01), highlighting their limited ability to create scoring opportunities. The recent form of both teams (1.6 PPG for the hosts vs 1.0 PPG for the visitors) further confirms Tepatitlán's advantage. Considering all indicators, a home win is the most likely scenario for this match.
Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Correcaminos UAT: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Tepatitlán de Morelos played against Correcaminos UAT in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on February 7, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Tepatitlán de Morelos has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. Correcaminos UAT has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.23 goals per game and allows 0.91. Correcaminos UAT scores 1.00 and allows 2.33. Games in this league average 2.88 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's games and 61% of Correcaminos UAT's. The Over 2.5 rates are 32% and 61%, compared with league averages of 54% for BTTS and 53% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Tepatitlán de Morelos has the higher season xG average, 1.63 to 1.17 per game. Tepatitlán de Morelos takes 13.9 shots per game, while Correcaminos UAT takes 9.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Tepatitlán de Morelos leads at halftime in 27% of its games and scores 0.68 goals per game after halftime. Correcaminos UAT leads at halftime in 6% and scores 0.72 after halftime.
When the teams score
Tepatitlán de Morelos's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). For Correcaminos UAT, it is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.88 goals. Both teams score in 54% of games, and 53% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tepatitlán de Morelos is in significantly better form and boasts superior statistics in home matches. The hosts win 36% of their home games, maintaining a positive goal difference (+3) and a high average xG (1.71), indicative of effective offensive play. Correcaminos UAT perform very poorly on the road – just 11% wins, a disastrous goal difference (-13), and an average of 2.33 goals conceded per match. The visitors also have a very low average of shots on target (2.44) and xG (1.01), highlighting their limited ability to create scoring opportunities. The recent form of both teams (1.6 PPG for the hosts vs 1.0 PPG for the visitors) further confirms Tepatitlán's advantage. Considering all indicators, a home win is the most likely scenario for this match.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Tepatitlán de Morelos | Correcaminos UAT | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 1 pts / game - Correcaminos UAT
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 23% better for: goals scored per game.
1.23 goals / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 1 goals / game - Correcaminos UAT
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 156% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.91 goals / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 2.33 goals / game - Correcaminos UAT
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 68% of games (15 of 22 meczów), while Correcaminos UAT keeps a clean sheet in 17% (3 of 18 meczów).
Correcaminos UAT scores in 72% of games (13 of 18 meczów), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 32% (7 of 22 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Over / Under - Correcaminos UAT
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 168% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.18 pts / game - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 0.44 pts / game - Correcaminos UAT
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 32%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Correcaminos UAT - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 6% of games and wins 17%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Tepatitlán de Morelos
Correcaminos UAT
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tepatitlán de Morelos | Liga | Correcaminos UAT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.14 | 2.88 | ▲ 3.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 54% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 32% | 53% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 27% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 73% | 75% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 79% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Tepatitlán de Morelos's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Correcaminos UAT. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Correcaminos UAT?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tepatitlán de Morelos 2:1 Correcaminos UAT. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Correcaminos UAT?
Tepatitlán de Morelos score 1.23 goals per game on average and Correcaminos UAT 1.00. The Ascenso MX average is 2.88 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's matches and 61% of Correcaminos UAT's.
What form are Tepatitlán de Morelos and Correcaminos UAT in?
Over the last 5 games Tepatitlán de Morelos have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Correcaminos UAT 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Correcaminos UAT?
The statistical background for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Correcaminos UAT — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.