Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Mineros de Zacatecas: match statistics

Tepatitlán de Morelos holds a clear defensive and home advantage: the hosts concede an average of 0.71 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 47% of games, while Mineros concede 2.06 goals on average away and register only 13% clean sheets. In attack Tepatitlán scored 47 goals this season and averages 1.59 goals at home with an xG of 1.79 and 5.47 shots on target per match, whereas Mineros have 52 goals this season but average only 1.31 goals away with xG 1.39 and just 4.44 shots on target. The efficiency gap is also reflected in results: the hosts win 59% of home matches and have a positive home goal difference (+15), while the visitors win only 25% of away games and have a negative away goal difference (-12). Both teams have a similar recent form — averaging 1.6 points per match in the last 5 games with an identical 2-2-1 record — but the hosts’ lower share of games without a goal (18% vs 31%) and higher shots per match (15.24 vs 10.63) favor the home side. Based on this I forecast a home win; I assess the probabilities as 65% Tepatitlán, 20% draw and 15% Mineros.

The primary signal comes from the percentages of matches without a goal: hosts fail to score in 12% of matches (i.e. score in 88%), visitors fail to score in 31% (i.e. score in 69%), yielding a simple multiplicative estimate of about 61% for BTTS. Seasonal BTTS rates are 59% for Tepatitlán and 63% for Mineros (average 61%), above the league average of 56%, which further supports a Goal/Goal scenario. Counterarguments exist: the hosts have a 41% clean sheet rate in home games, and in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred only in 40%, pulling the outcome down. However, xG and shot numbers help balance the risk: hosts xG 1.70 versus xG against the visitors 1.43, and visitors xG 1.39 versus xG against the hosts 1.12, while hosts average 5.12 shots on target against 4.44 for visitors, so ultimately I rate BTTS - Yes at 62%.

The xG model, calculated as the average of each team’s offense and opponent’s defense, gives 1.57 xG for Tepatitlán and 1.26 xG for Mineros, totaling 2.83 expected goals. Tepatitlán scores an average of 1.82 goals per match, Mineros 1.31, while Mineros concedes 2.06 on average — with home xG 1.7 and away defensive xG 1.43 this is a clear signal for an elevated goal count. Seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 goals are 82% (home) and 94% (away), therefore I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at approximately 92%. Over 2.5 looks moderate: seasonally 53% for the home side and 69% for the away, but in the last 5 home matches the >2.5 rate is 0% (40% for the away), so I estimate 61% for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is less likely (seasonal 35%/50% and combined xG 2.83), therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

I back 1/1 (home leading at Half-Time and winning at Full-Time) because Tepatitlán led at the break in 59% of their matches, averaging 1.82 goals per game this season versus Mineros’ 1.31, and conceding 1.00 compared to Mineros’ 2.06. At Half-Time the hosts average 1.12 goals scored and 0.53 conceded and have an average of 2.12 points at the break versus Mineros’ 0.69 scored and 0.81 conceded, indicating Tepatitlán more frequently taking a lead at the break. Analysis of the quality of attacking situations confirms the hosts’ advantage: home xG is 1.70 versus the visitors’ 1.39, with shot volumes of 15.12 and 5.12 on target compared to Mineros’ 10.63 and 4.44. In the second half Mineros concede on average 1.25 goals and 88% of their matches feature at least one goal after the break, whereas the hosts have positive second-half metrics (average second-half points 1.47, goal difference +4 and 59% clean second halves), so the probability that the hosts will hold or extend their lead is high. Based on this the most likely scenario is 1/1 (41%), followed by X/1 (16%) and X/X (14%), hence the recommendation of 1/1.