Teplice vs Baník Ostrava: match statistics

Teplice hold the home advantage: they average 0.94 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per home match, while Baník manage only 0.6 goals scored and concede 1.53 on the road. The visitors produce higher away xG (1.54 vs 1.33 xG for Teplice at home) and more possession (53% vs 42%), but suffer from significantly lower finishing efficiency — 5% conversion versus 9% for the hosts — plus 53% of away matches without scoring. In the last 5 matches Teplice have scored 5 and conceded 8 (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, averaging 0.4 points per game), whereas Baník have 2 scored and 9 conceded (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, averaging 0.2 points per game). Additionally, the home side have 38% clean sheets at home versus only 13% away clean sheets for Baník, and the visitors have conceded 45 goals this season with an away goal difference of -14. Given Teplice’s superior shot efficiency and defensive stability against Baník’s poor conversion and form, the most likely outcome is a low-scoring home win.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 31% (Teplice) and 40% (Baník), which is below the league average of 50% and provides an initial signal against BTTS. Baník averages only 0.6 goals per season and just 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 per match), while Teplice average 1.0 goals per season and 5 goals in the last 5 (1.0), so Baník is the primary limiter of the chance that both teams will score. On the other hand both teams generate xG of 1.62 (Teplice) and 1.54 (Baník) with shot conversion rates of 7% and 5%, indicating chance creation but poor finishing. Additionally both sides concede a lot — 1.38 and 1.53 per season and 1.6 and 1.8 in the last 5 matches — which increases the likelihood of at least one goal, but not necessarily goals from both teams simultaneously. Considering the low season BTTS rates (31% and 40%), Baník’s poor conversion and current form, the

Teplice generate on average 1.62 xG and concede 1.43 xG; Baník has 1.54 xG and concedes 1.66 xG. Matching the home attack (1.62) against the away defense (1.66) nominally yields ~1.64 xG for Teplice, while the away attack (1.54) versus the home defense (1.43) yields ~1.49 xG for Baník. However, seasonal shot conversion is low (7% for Teplice, 5% for Baník) and Baník realistically scores only 0.6 goals per game (0.4 in the last 5 matches), so I adjusted the values down to 1.48 for Teplice and 0.92 for Baník (total 2.40). Season-long stats support a directional pick: Teplice have over 1.5 in 69% of matches, Baník in 53%, whereas Over 2.5 occurs less often (31% and 20%). A Poisson model on the total expected goals of 2.40 gives ~69% for Over 1.5, ~43% for Over 2.5 and ~22% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is a bet on Over 1.5.

At Half-Time the most likely outcome is a draw: Teplice were level at the break in 38% of matches, Baník in 40%, and first-half goals per game are only 0.44 (Teplice) and 0.33 (Baník), suggesting a low scoring first 45 minutes. For Full-Time the home side are favorites — Teplice won 25% of matches versus just 7% for Baník, and the season goals-per-game of 1.00 (Teplice) vs 0.60 (Baník) indicates an offensive advantage for the hosts. This is supported by second-half profiles: Teplice average 0.56 goals after the break compared to 0.27 for the visitors, and in the 46–60 minute interval the hosts scored 7 goals versus 1 for Baník, indicating frequent turnarounds by Teplice after the restart. Additionally, xG 1.62 (Teplice) versus 1.54 (Baník) and shot conversion rates 7% vs 5% argue that the hosts convert chances more often in the second half. For these reasons the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of a draw at the break and a Teplice win at full-time (X/1) is judged the strongest signal.