Teplice vs Hradec Králové: match statistics

I favor an away win for Hradec Králové ('2'). The visitors have a clear advantage in form and recent results: Hradec won 4 of their last 5 matches (8 goals scored, 5 conceded, averaging 2.4 points per game), while Teplice have not won in their last five fixtures (0 wins, 5 matches). Offensively Hradec is more effective — 1.43 goals per game away versus 1.00 goals for the home side at home, 4.5 shots on target vs 3.57 and a conversion rate of 13% compared to 9%; xG, however, indicates a similar chance-creation potential (1.32 xG for the visitors away vs 1.33 xG for the hosts at home). Teplice have a defensive edge at home (on average 1.14 goals conceded per game and 43% clean sheets), while Hradec concedes 1.57 goals away and has only 14% clean sheets, which may limit the margin of any defeat for the visitors. Considering Teplice’s poor run and the visitors’ higher efficiency in turning chances into goals, I assign higher probability to a Hradec win, with a modest possibility of a draw.

Teplice as the home side concedes on average 0.8 goals per match and has 53% clean sheets this season, while Hradec Králové scores 1.43 goals on average and has a season BTTS rate of 57%. xG for both teams is nearly identical (Teplice 1.31 vs Hradec 1.32), and shots on target favor the visitors (3.6 vs 4.5), giving Hradec some offensive creativity. In the last 5 matches Teplice had BTTS in 60% of cases (5 scored and 7 conceded), whereas Hradec had BTTS in 40% of their last 5 and scored 8, conceded 5; the visitors’ form (lwwww) is clearly better than the hosts’ (dddll). However, the key signal is Teplice’s high clean sheet percentage (53%) and the hosts’ low average goals conceded 0.8, which significantly reduces the probability of a Goal/Goal despite Hradec’s seasonal 57% BTTS. Therefore I estimate BTTS probability at approx. 38% versus 62% for No Goal, and my top pick is "No".

Total expected xG is 2.63 (1.31 for Teplice and 1.32 for Hradec), while seasonal average goals are 1.47 for the home side and 1.43 for the away side, totaling 2.90 goals per match. Season rates for matches over 1.5 goals are 73% for Teplice and 71% for Hradec, hence Over 1.5 assessed at 72%, whereas the 2.5 line is more balanced (47% vs 50%), giving a slight edge to Over 2.5 (~52%). Over 3.5 goals is rare: 13% for Teplice and 36% for Hradec (average ≈25%), and the combined xG 2.63 is well below 3.5, therefore I rate Under 3.5 at 76%. Additionally, Teplice have 53% clean sheets at home versus only 14% away clean sheets for Hradec, and total shots on target are 3.6+4.5=8.1 with conversion rates 14%/13%, which confirms a moderate goal output and reinforces the Under 3.5 selection.

Teplice led at half-time in 7 matches this season (47%), while Hradec led only in 4 (29%), giving the home side a clear advantage in first halves. Full-season stats also favor Teplice: 53% wins versus Hradec’s 36%, an average of 1.47 goals scored and only 0.80 conceded per match, while the visitors average 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded. At half-time Teplice average 0.80 goals and 0.40 conceded, and Hradec 0.64 scored and 0.64 conceded, so the hosts more frequently take a lead and have fewer defensive issues before the break. However, recent form over the last 5 matches should be noted: Teplice have sequence dddll with 0% wins in the last 5, and Hradec lwwww with 80% wins, which increases the risk of a turnaround by the visitors in the second half. Considering Teplice’s advantage at the break and superior goal statistics, the strongest scenario is 1/1 (31%), while significant chances remain for a final draw after the break (X/X 16%) and for the visitors to recover after the break (X/2 10%).