Teplice vs Viktoria Plzeň: match statistics

Teplice began the season with 2 wins, scoring 4 goals and conceding just 1, while Viktoria Plzeň have collected only one point from their first two matches, with a 2:4 goal difference. The hosts are also in excellent form over the broader sample: they have won all of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 3. At home, Teplice average 3 goals per game, register 14 shots, 5 of them on target, and boast a high shot-conversion rate of 21%. Viktoria have won only once in their last five matches, suffering 2 defeats and conceding 7 goals, which significantly increases Teplice’s chances given the hosts’ attacking form. Although the hosts allow opponents an average xG of 1.50, their own xG of 1.54, combined with their excellent current finishing, points towards another victory.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily based on the risk that Viktoria Plzeň will fail to convert its chances against a Teplice defense that has been highly effective recently. Teplice have conceded just 3 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.6 per game, despite allowing opponents an average of 1.51 xG. Viktoria have scored 1.4 goals per game during this period from 1.61 xG, but their run includes BTTS - Yes outcomes in only 40% of matches, identical to the hosts’ last five games. The hosts should nevertheless find a way to score, having averaged 2.4 goals in their last five appearances, while Plzeň have conceded 1.4 goals per match. Although the league-wide BTTS average stands at a high 69%, Teplice’s current defensive form provides stronger support for a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Teplice are in excellent form: they have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 per game, while Viktoria Plzeň have scored 7 goals over the same period, averaging 1.4. The attacking potential of both teams is also supported by their xG figures: 1.33 for Teplice and 1.61 for the visitors across their last five appearances. The hosts’ defense has conceded just 3 goals in five matches, although Plzeň have been conceding an average of 1.4 goals, giving Teplice a realistic route to finding the net. The Czech league is also clearly goal-oriented, with an average of 3.13 goals per match and 63% of games finishing Over 2.5 goals. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.85 goals provides a substantial safety margin even if the closing stages of the match are less effective.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Teplice win, as the hosts have been level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and went on to win all 5 games during this period. After the break, Teplice averaged 2.0 goals scored and conceded just 0.2, while Viktoria Plzeň scored only 0.4 goals per match in the second half. The hosts’ overall form is clearly superior: they averaged 2.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, whereas the visitors averaged 1.4 goals both scored and conceded. Plzeň can start aggressively, leading at the break in 40% of their last five matches and averaging 1.0 goal scored before half-time, so an away lead remains a genuine threat. Teplice’s decisive advantage is nevertheless evident after the interval, having won the second half in all 5 of their last appearances, while the visitors failed to win it in 80% of cases.