Ternana vs Perugia: match statistics

Ternana has a clear advantage in home metrics: on average 1.31 goals and xG 1.94 per home match versus 1.06 goals and xG 1.37 per away match for Perugia; the hosts also attempt more shots (14.63 vs 11.75) and more shots on target (4.88 vs 3.56). Defensively the picture also favors Ternana — they concede 1.13 goals at home on average with xG against 1.18, while Perugia concedes 1.44 goals on the road with xG against 1.49. Against the hosts is their recent form: Ternana have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 goals scored and 6 conceded, averaging 0.4 points per game), whereas Perugia are unbeaten in five (2 wins, 3 draws, 7-5 goal difference and 1.8 points per game). Over the season Ternana win 50% of home matches and keep 25% clean sheets, while Perugia win only 25% of their away fixtures and keep 13% clean sheets, which together with higher possession (54% vs 49%) gives the hosts an advantage in quality of chances. I tip a narrow Ternana win with probabilities: 55% home, 25% draw, 20% away, due to superior xG and chance quality despite poorer recent form.

Seasonal and last-5 match signals favor BTTS: Perugia has a seasonal BTTS rate of 63% and 80% in the last 5, while Ternana is 53% seasonally and 60% in the last 5, yielding a short-term average of 70% and a longer-term 58%. Goals and xG data confirm the risk of both teams scoring: Perugia concedes 1.44 goals per match on the season and has an xG against of 1.56 in the last 5, whereas Ternana concedes 1.00 seasonally and has xG against 1.16 in the last 5; simultaneously Ternana creates xG 1.73 seasonally and 1.91 in the last 5. Offensive activity and efficiency also point to goals from both sides: Ternana averages 14.24 shots and 4.47 on target per match versus Perugia’s 11.75 and 3.56, and Perugia’s 9% conversion rate vs Ternana’s 7% suggests Perugia is more likely to convert chances. Clean sheets are relatively rare, which supports BTTS: Ternana keeps clean sheets in 24% of matches, Perugia only 13%, while the league average BTTS is 50% — here the short-term trend and xG/shots increase the probability of goals from both sides. Based on the above figures I assess BTTS probability at 70% vs 30%, so the betting recommendation is 'yes' (BTTS - Yes).

The model is based on xG and season percentages: Ternana’s attacking xG is 1.73 versus Perugia’s defensive xG 1.49, yielding an expected ~1.61 goals for the home side; Perugia’s attacking xG is 1.37 against Ternana’s defensive xG 1.29, i.e. ~1.33 goals for the away team, total 2.94. Season Over 1.5 rates are 71% for Ternana and 75% for Perugia (avg 73%), and Over 0.5 is 88% and 100%, which strongly supports the at least two-goal scenario. Season Over 2.5 is 35% and 50% (avg 42.5%), but higher xG in the last 5 matches (Ternana last5 xG_for 1.91, Perugia last5 xG_against 1.56) raise the expectation above 2.5, therefore I rate Over 2.5 at 58%. Over 3.5 remains unlikely (seasonal 12% and 19%, avg ~15%) and with a total of 2.94 the chance of over 3.5 goals is about 19%, so Under 3.5 81%. The best line to play is Over 1.5 (rating 82%) — both teams have over 70% season Over 1.5 rates and expected goals 2.94, providing the strongest signal.

I select X/1 (draw at Half-Time, Ternana to win Full-Time) because the home side generates noticeably more high-quality chances: home xG is 1.73 versus 1.49 xG conceded by Perugia, and average shots on target are 4.47 compared to 3.56 for the visitors. A draw at the break is the most likely outcome — Ternana were level at Half-Time in 53% of their home matches, while Perugia led at the break in only 25% of their away fixtures, indicating an even first half. In the second half the hosts should swing the tie in their favor: Ternana have a better Half-Time points record (21 points, average 1.24) than Perugia (17 points, average 1.06), and over the season they score on average 1.06 goals while Perugia concedes 1.44. Despite lower shot conversion (7% versus 9% for the visitors), Ternana take more shots (14.24 vs 11.75) and more shots on target (4.47 vs 3.56), increasing the likelihood of a goal after the break. The risk, however, lies with Perugia — in their last five away matches the visitors led at Half-Time in 60% of cases and have a 40% win rate in their last five games — so I assign a material probability to a Full-Time draw and to an away win.