Thór vs Víkingur Reykjavík: match statistics

Víkingur Reykjavík is top of the table with a record of 13 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses this season, while Thór sit 12th with only 2 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses. Offensively the visitors are markedly superior: averaging 3.43 goals per away match and 18.71 shots with 7 on target, versus Thór’s 1.29 home goals and 10.86 shots (3.43 on target); conversion rate 18% vs 12%. Defensively the gap is similarly large — Víkingur concedes 0.57 goals per away match (xG against 0.93), while Thór concede 2.43 at home (xG against 2.31), with visitors’ attacking xG 2.13 vs hosts’ 1.22 (difference 0.91). Form supports these figures: Thór in last 5 have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, averaging 0.4 points per match and conceding 18 goals in those five games (3.6 per match), losing 71% of home matches; Víkingur in last 5 have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss and average 2 points per match. Considering goal difference (+20 for visitors away vs -8 for hosts), superiority in shots, accuracy and xG, I assess Víkingur’s win probability at 80%, draw 12% and Thór win 8%.

The strongest signal for BTTS - Yes is the high league-level BTTS rate: in Úrvalsdeild both teams scored in 74% of matches. In the hosts' last 5 matches BTTS was 100% (5/5), and for the visitors 60% (3/5), indicating both teams are regularly scoring and conceding in current form. The hosts have conceded an average of 3.6 goals in their last 5 matches and their recent xG against is 2.53, while the visitors have scored 10 goals in their last 5 and have a recent attacking xG of 1.5, so the visitors possess attacking potential against a vulnerable defense. Season-to-date the visitors have scored 48 goals versus 15 for the hosts (48 vs 15) and season BTTS is 57% for visitors vs 43% for hosts, which further supports both teams scoring. Considering the league 74% BTTS rate, the hosts' 100% BTTS in L5 and the visitors' attacking superiority, I estimate the probability of BTTS - Yes at 75% vs 25% for No Goal.

Both teams have 100% of season matches with over 1.5 goals (Thór 100%, Víkingur 100%), and their combined xG is 4.42 (xG Thór 2.29 vs Víkingur 2.13), exceeding the league average of 4.05. A Poisson model with lambda=4.42 yields estimates: Over 1.5 ≈93.5% (rounded 94%), Over 2.5 ≈81.8% (82%) and Over 3.5 ≈64.4% (64%). In the last 5 matches both teams record Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, and Thór concedes on average 3.6 goals per game in those five fixtures, which further increases the likelihood of more goals. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is to play over 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5) with expected goals 2.29 for Thór and 2.13 for Víkingur.

Half-time statistics clearly favor Víkingur: the visitors led at the break in 4 of 7 matches (57%), the hosts in 3 of 7 (43%), and Víkingur’s average goals conceded before half-time is only 0.14 while they score an average of 1.29. Across the season Víkingur has a 100% win rate and averages 3.0 points per match versus Thór’s 2.71, and although the hosts’ xG is 2.29 compared to 2.13 for the visitors, Víkingur defends more effectively (xG against 0.93 vs 1.04), which supports maintaining a lead at the break. Both teams are very active after half-time (on average 2.29 goals for the hosts and 2.14 for the visitors in the second half), but form over the last five matches favors the visitors: the hosts have won none of their last five (0/5), while the visitors have won 3 of 5 (60%). Additionally, Víkingur has 86% clean sheets at half-time and the league is high-scoring (an average of 4.05 goals per match), so the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and holding the win until full-time. Therefore I select 2/2 as the primary HT/FT pick, with x/2 as a backup scenario if the match is level at the break.