Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye: match statistics

I predict a draw. Both teams have comparable chance-creation metrics — average xG 1.01 for Tianjin and 1.05 for Henan, average shots 8.67 vs 8.50 and possession 50% vs 49%, indicating an even match. The hosts, however, show better finishing in recent weeks: 9 goals in their last 5 matches versus 6 for the visitors, higher conversion rate 13% vs 8% and a much lower share of goalless games 17% vs 50%. On the other hand Tianjin have not won at home yet (0% home wins, 50% draws, 50% losses) and concede on average 1.67 goals at home, while Henan concede 1.33 on the road, which weakens the case for a decisive home victory. Additionally, average xG against suggests the visitors allow more high-quality chances (1.47 against Henan vs 1.31 against Tianjin) and have a higher points-per-game average in the last 5 matches (1.4 vs 1.2), so a low, balanced scoreline and a split of points is the most likely outcome.

Tianjin Teda averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes 1.00 per match this season, while Henan Jianye scores only 0.67 and concedes 1.33, giving the home side greater attacking potential (1.33 vs 0.67) and the visitors higher vulnerability to conceding (1.33 conceded). xG is 1.53 for Tianjin versus 1.47 xG against Henan, and for Henan xG is 1.05 versus 1.11 xG against Tianjin; roughly converting, 1.53 corresponds to ~78% chance of a goal, 1.05 ~65%, which combined gives about a 51% probability of BTTS. In the last 5 matches Tianjin had BTTS in 100% of cases, while Henan only in 20%; season BTTS rates are 33% for the hosts and 50% for the visitors, and the league BTTS rate is 61%, which supports a Goal/Goal scenario. Additionally Tianjin generates on average 13.67 shots and 3.67 shots on target vs 8.5 and 3.0 for Henan, and clean sheet percentage is 33% for the hosts and 17% for the visitors, so scoring opportunities and conceding are likely. Considering xG (~51%), form (100% vs 20% in last 5) and the league BTTS level of 61%, I tip BTTS - Yes with a 60% probability vs 40% for No Goal.

Based on xG and goal averages I project 1.50 expected goals for Tianjin Teda (xG attack 1.53 vs xG defense Henan 1.47 → average 1.50) and 1.08 for Henan Jianye (xG attack 1.05 vs xG defense Tianjin 1.11 → average 1.08), totaling 2.58 goals. Assuming independence and Poisson distributions this implies probability of Over 1.5 ≈ 72.9% (1 − P(0) − P(1)), Over 2.5 ≈ 47.6% and Over 3.5 ≈ 25.95%. Additionally Tianjin averages 13.67 shots and 3.67 on target with a 10% conversion rate and a seasonal average of 1.33 goals, while Henan averages 8.5 shots, 3.0 on target and 0.67 goals, favoring more scoring opportunities for the home side. In the last 5 matches Tianjin scored 1.8 goals on average, Henan 1.2 (combined average 3.0), and the league average is 2.99 goals, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5) with a probability around 73%.

Season-long figures indicate a home advantage: Tianjin averages 1.33 goals per match versus 0.67 for the visitors and collects 1.67 points per match compared to Henan’s 0.83, with win rates of 50% vs 17%. However, at half-time matches are often level – the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 games (80%), and the season average for goals by half is 0.5 for both sides, which increases the likelihood of a draw HT. In the second half the home advantage is reinforced by the numbers: xG 1.53 versus 1.05, more shots 13.67 vs 8.5 and on average 0.83 home goals in the second half versus 0.17 for the visitors, meaning Tianjin more often breaks the draw after the break. On this basis the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home victory at full-time, so I select X/1 as the most likely scenario.