Tiszakécske vs Szeged 2011: match statistics

Tiszakécske scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches (1.2 per match), while Szeged 2011 managed only 3 goals (0.6 per match), giving the hosts an offensive edge. Defensively Szeged looks more solid — Tiszakécske conceded 9 goals in those 5 games (1.8 per match), and the visitors 6 goals (1.2 per match), so the away side is more compact at the back. The hosts have won 2 of their last 5 matches (40%) and average 1.2 points per match in that period, whereas Szeged has 1 win (20%) and averages 0.8 points per match, favoring Tiszakécske. Both teams show inconsistent runs (hosts: llwwl, visitors: lldwl) and both concede above 1 goal per game, indicating an open match with goals. Considering the hosts’ higher scoring efficiency and better points average, I assign roughly a 55% probability to the home win, 20% to a draw and 25% to the away win.

I assess the probability of BTTS at 65% (Yes) vs 35% (No) based on available data. Tiszakécske had BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches (3 of 5), scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 1.8 goals per match in those fixtures. Szeged 2011 in their last 5 matches scored an average of 0.6 goals and conceded 1.2 goals, but their average xG is 1.26 per match versus the home side’s 1.44 xG, which together gives a combined xG of 2.70 (1.44+1.26). The combined average goals conceded by both teams in the last 5 matches is 3.0 per match (1.8+1.2), indicating a tendency for both sides to concede; therefore the Goal/Goal scenario is considered more likely.

Based on the last 5 matches, the home side’s xG is 1.44, the away side’s xG is 1.26, and xG against is 1.40 versus Tiszakécske and 1.02 versus Szeged, yielding forecasted ~1.23 goals for the home team and ~1.33 for the away team (total ~2.56). In the last 5 fixtures Tiszakécske scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and conceded 9 (1.8), while Szeged scored 3 (0.6) and conceded 6 (1.2), indicating greater defensive instability for the home team. Line stats show 60% of the home team’s last 5 matches were Over 2.5 goals, 40% for the away team, and BTTS is 60% for the home side versus 0% for the away side, so offensive signals are mixed. A Poisson model with total lambda=2.56 gives probability Over 1.5 ≈72%, Over 2.5 ≈47% and Over 3.5 ≈26% (i.e. Under 3.5 ≈74%). The strongest and most reliable signal from these data is therefore Under 3.5 (~74% chance), so I recommend backing the Under 3.5 line as the most justified numerical option.

Statistics from the last 5 matches strongly suggest a draw at half-time: the home side were level at the break in 40% of matches and the visitors in 60%, which increases the likelihood of a draw after 45 minutes. After the break Tiszakécske is more active — they score on average 0.8 goals in the second half versus 1.6 average second-half goals in their matches, while Szeged has 0.4 and 1.2 on these parameters, so the home side’s advantage grows after the break. Over the full match the hosts have better offensive output, 1.2 goals scored in the last 5 games compared to 0.6 for the away team, despite conceding on average 1.8 goals; the low number of first-half goals for the hosts (0.4) explains the frequent HT draws. The home team won 40% of the last 5 matches, the visitors only 20%, and the hosts win the second half in 60% of cases, which supports a turnaround after the break. Therefore the most likely scenario I select is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).