Tiszakécske vs Szentlőrinc SE: match statistics

Tiszakécske has a statistical advantage in attack and possession: at home they average 1.21 goals with an average xG of 1.61, while Szentlőrinc score only 0.79 goals away with xG 1.24. The hosts average 11.82 shots and 3.55 on target per home match with a conversion rate of 10%, versus the visitors' 9.71 shots and 3.64 on target with 8% conversion; additionally Tiszakécske fail to score in only 14% of home games, while Szentlőrinc are goalless in 43% of away matches. Defensively both teams concede roughly 1.21 goals per game statistically, but average xG against shows a home advantage — 1.47 for Tiszakécske versus 1.67 for Szentlőrinc, suggesting the visitors allow more dangerous chances. In the last 5 matches the hosts collected 9 points (3 wins, 2 losses) and the visitors 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss); however over the season Tiszakécske sit higher in the table (8th, 10 wins) than Szentlőrinc (13th, 6 wins). Considering the higher xG (1.61–1.24), better shot efficiency (10%–8%), greater possession (54%–46%) and a much lower share of goalless home games (14%–43%), I predict a Tiszakécske win; probabilities: 62% home, 20% draw, 18% away.

The BTTS scenario appears more likely: Tiszakécske has a home BTTS rate of 67% this season, Szentlőrinc 43% overall, and the league average is 47%. Both sides concede scoring opportunities — hosts concede 1.60 goals per match on average, visitors 1.21, with xG against of 1.46 (Tiszakécske) and 1.67 (Szentlőrinc). In attack the hosts average 1.47 goals with xG 1.42 and a higher shot conversion of 13%, while the visitors have a seasonal average of 0.79 goals with xG 1.24 and a lower conversion of 8%, though in their last 5 matches Szentlőrinc generated ~1.2 xG and scored on average 1.0 goal. Additionally Tiszakécske had BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, Szentlőrinc only 20%, but the combined seasonal goals conceded are 42 and 41 respectively, which favors an exchange of goals. Considering the strong seasonal home signal (67%) and the high xG against both teams (1.46 vs 1.67), I assign 65% to BTTS - Yes and 35% to No Goal.

Based on xG I project 1.55 goals for Tiszakécske (xG_for_home 1.42 vs xG_against_away 1.67 → average 1.55) and 1.35 for Szentlőrinc (xG_for_away 1.24 vs xG_against_home 1.46 → 1.35), totaling approximately 2.90 goals. A Poisson model for a 2.90 sum yields ~79% chance of Over 1.5 (≥2 goals), ~55% for Over 2.5 (≥3 goals) and ~33% for Over 3.5 (≥4 goals). The home side has a shot conversion rate of 13% versus 8% for the visitors and score on average 1.47 goals this season, while Szentlőrinc have 0.79, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals (seasonal Over1.5: home 87%, away 64%). In the last 5 matches Tiszakécske scored 9 goals (1.8 per match), Szentlőrinc 5 goals (1.0 per match), and the percentage of matches in which both teams scored is 67% for the home team and 43% for the away team, so there is a real risk of events pushing the total up. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — a high 79% projection consistent with xG and seasonal indicators provides an edge for betting Over 1.5.

Tiszakécske led at half-time in 7 matches (47%), while Szentlőrinc did so in only 3 (21%), indicating a home advantage in the first half. The hosts score an average of 0.73 goals by half-time versus 0.43 for the visitors, and their xG per match is 1.42 compared to Szentlőrinc’s 1.24, so the hosts’ offensive activity favors a lead at the break. At the same time Tiszakécske concedes an average of 1.13 goals in the second half and finishes matches level in 47% of cases with only 27% wins, and in 67% of their games both teams scored, which suggests that leads at the break are often not carried through to the final whistle. On this basis my most likely HT/FT scenario is 1/X (hosts lead at half-time, draw at full-time) and I assign it a 26% probability; significant alternatives are X/X (20%) and 1/1 (14%).