Tiverton Town vs Farnham Town: match statistics

Farnham Town has a clear attacking edge: they scored 87 goals this season (avg. 2.05 goals per away game), whereas Tiverton Town score only 0.95 goals per home match and have 43 goals overall. The visitors create significantly more chances — averaging 10.5 shots and 4.63 on target per away game versus Tiverton’s 6.57 shots and 2.43 on target at home — with a conversion rate of 18% vs 9%. The home defense is highly vulnerable: Tiverton concede 2.00 goals per home game and have let in 19 goals in their last 5 matches (3.8 per game), collecting 0 points in that span (5 losses). Farnham, despite a dip in form (only 3 goals in the last 5 matches and an average of 1.2 points per game in that period), remain more solid away — conceding 1.4 goals on the road and failing to score in only 15% of away matches, whereas Tiverton fail to score in 50% of home games. Based on these comparisons (efficiency gap 2.05 vs 0.95, higher shot volume and superior conversion 18% vs 9%, and Tiverton’s 19 goals conceded in the last 5), I tip Farnham to win (2).

Seasonal BTTS indicators are high: Tiverton Town has 67% BTTS, Farnham Town 70%, versus a league average of 59%. Tiverton creates a lot of chances (avg xG 2.45, 7.33 SOT and 19 shots per match), while Farnham, despite a lower xG 1.35, have 87 goals this season and an 18% conversion rate, so both sides can score. Both defenses are vulnerable — Tiverton have conceded 107 goals this season and have allowed an average of 3.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Farnham have only 15% clean sheets and concede 1.4 goals per game on the season. Additionally Tiverton have 0% matches without a goal this season (FTS 0%) and their last 5 home matches show 80% BTTS, whereas Farnham have 40% BTTS in their last 5, so the seasonal BTTS signal outweighs the short-term uneven away form. Therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 78% versus 22% for No, because offensive numbers and high seasonal BTTS rates dominate (67%/70%, xG 2.45 vs 1.35, 7.33 vs 4.63 SOT).

Based on xG: Tiverton has xG_for 2.45 and Farnham xG_against 1.38, yielding expected home goals ≈1.92; similarly the visitors (xG_for 1.35 and home xG_against 1.06) ≈1.21, total ≈3.13. With aggregate λ≈3.13 the Poisson distribution gives ~82% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~60% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~38% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal rates confirm a scoring bias: Tiverton has 86% of matches over 1.5 goals, Farnham 75%, and for the 2.5 line values are 67% and 65% respectively (average ~66%). Additionally both sides record BTTS 67% (home) and 70% (away); the home side averages 7.33 shots on target vs 4.63 for the visitors, and Tiverton concedes on average 3.8 goals in the last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals. Therefore the strongest and most consistent signal is Over 1.5 (Over), as it has the highest probability ~82% supported by xG, seasonal over 1.5 shares and BTTS/shots statistics.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). The draw at the break is supported by data: hosts are level at half-time in 38% of matches and visitors in 50%, giving an average of around 44% chance of a draw at half-time. After the break the home side usually dominate — they score an average of 1.48 goals in the second half versus 1.25 for the away team, have a higher average points return in the second half (2.43 vs 1.85) and a higher proportion of wins after the break (76% vs 55%). Additionally the hosts create more chances (xG 2.45 vs 1.35, 19.0 shots per match vs 10.5 and 7.33 shots on target vs 4.63), which favors their victory despite the visitors’ slightly higher finishing rate (18% vs 14%). There is, however, a form risk — the home team have lost their last 5 matches (form 'lllll') — but both teams frequently score this season (BTTS 67% hosts, 70% away), so I expect a draw at half-time followed by Tiverton turning it around to win with goals from both sides.