Tiverton Town vs Plymouth Parkway: match statistics

I predict an away win (Plymouth Parkway). Plymouth have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in that period, while Tiverton have only 1 win and 4 goals in their last 5. The visitors average 2.0 points per game over the last 5 matches versus Tiverton's 0.6, and have a lower proportion of matches without scoring (32% vs 56%). Tiverton concede less at home (1.89 goals per game vs 2.37 for Plymouth away) and have higher possession (54% vs 51%), but Plymouth compensate with superior shot efficiency (conversion 21% away vs 5% for Tiverton at home) and a higher recent goal output. Considering form (points per game 2.0 vs 0.6), the efficiency advantage and the lower share of scoreless games, I estimate probabilities of 55% for the visitors, 25% for a draw and 20% for the home side.

Statistics support a BTTS - Yes scenario: seasonal BTTS rates are 53% for Tiverton and 63% for Plymouth, with a league average of 60%. Plymouth concedes on average 2.37 goals per game and has only 5% clean sheets, with xG against of 1.97, indicating defensive vulnerability from the visitors. Tiverton creates more opportunities (5.33 shots on target and xG 1.26) versus Plymouth’s 2.0 shots on target and xG 0.79, so the home side have a realistic chance to score despite poorer form. In the last 5 matches Tiverton scored 0.8 and conceded 2.2, Plymouth scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2, and the league goals average is 3.14, which further favors goal exchanges. Considering BTTS 53%/63%, the low away clean sheet rate of 5%, the high xG against of 1.97 and recent form, I assess the probability of BTTS at 70% for Yes and 30% for No; recommended bet: Yes.

Calculated expected goals are 1.62 for Tiverton and 1.08 for Plymouth, totaling 2.70 goals; I computed them as averages of xG: (1.26 + 1.97)/2 = 1.62 and (0.79 + 1.37)/2 = 1.08. Season data shows Tiverton has 79% of matches over 1.5 goals, Plymouth 89%, and both teams have 63% of matches over 2.5 goals, indicating a strong tendency toward at least two strikes. Additionally, Plymouth concedes on average 2.37 goals per game, the hosts average 8.83 shots per game with 5.33 on target, and in the last 5 fixtures the visitors scored 9 goals (1.8 avg), which increases the likelihood of goals. Considering the expected 2.70 goals and the league average of 3.14, I estimate probabilities of Over 1.5 at 88%, Over 2.5 at 68% and Over 3.5 at 34%. Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: high season frequency of over1.5 (79% vs 89%) and the projected 1.62 + 1.08 goals provide a clear edge for this line.

Tiverton holds a clear advantage: 53% wins and 1.68 points per game, while Plymouth has 16% wins and 0.74 points per game, positioning the home side as the favorite. Quality-of-play metrics confirm this; Tiverton averages xG = 1.26, Plymouth only xG = 0.79, and the visitors concede on average 2.37 goals per game (xG against = 1.97), making them more prone to conceding. The tempo at Half-Time is low — hosts score 0.58 goals on average, visitors 0.53 (1.11 combined), and only 11% of matches see both teams score before the break, so a draw or a minimal lead at the break is most likely. The decisive phase is the second half: Tiverton scores at least once in 89% of matches after the break, Plymouth in 95%, and the visitors conceded 6+8+15=29 goals in minutes 46–90 (15 in 76–90), which favors home goals after Half-Time. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a Tiverton victory at Full-Time (X/1), hence the highest probability is assigned to this HT/FT outcome.