Tlaxcala vs CDS Tampico Madero: match statistics

Tlaxcala have a poor record overall this season, with 1 win, 2 draws and 4 defeats, but they have won 33% of their home matches and average 1.67 goals per game. CDS Tampico Madero are in better overall current form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches; however, they have lost all three away games this season without scoring a single goal. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average xG of 1.37, while the visitors generate 1.02 xG away from home and register only 2.33 shots on target per match. Both defenses concede 2.33 goals per game under the respective conditions analyzed, and neither side has kept a clean sheet, increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends. The key argument in favor of Tlaxcala, however, is Tampico’s extremely poor away record: 100% defeats and 100% of matches without scoring.

The signal for both teams to score is primarily based on their current form: Tlaxcala recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Tampico Madero did so in 40%, averaging 1.6 and 1.8 goals scored, respectively. Both defenses were vulnerable during this period, with the hosts conceding an average of 1.8 goals and the visitors 2.0. Their attacking potential is also supported by recent xG averages: 1.20 for Tlaxcala and 1.26 for Tampico Madero, while their opponents allowed 1.46 and 1.59 xG, respectively. Tlaxcala should pose a particularly strong threat, as they average 2.25 goals at home, while Tampico Madero concede 2.33 goals away. The risk to the pick is that the visitors have yet to score in the season’s away data and have not recorded a single BTTS there, but their recent overall finishing form marginally supports a breakthrough.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals, as at least two goals were scored in 75% of Tlaxcala’s matches and 67% of Tampico Madero’s games. The teams’ last five appearances produced an average of 3.4 and 3.8 goals respectively, while Over 2.5 landed in 60% of the home side’s matches and as many as 80% of the away side’s games. Tlaxcala averages 11.5 shots at home, including 4.75 on target, while their opponents concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home. The xG model also points to around 2.50 goals, with the hosts recording 1.23 xG and the visitors conceding 1.52 xG, while the away side creates an average of 1.02 xG. The 2.5 line remains more evenly balanced, as 67% of Tampico Madero’s matches have ended with fewer than three goals, making Over 1.5 the safer and clearer edge.

Tlaxcala have won 75% of their home matches and average 2.25 goals, while Tampico Madero have lost all of their away fixtures, conceding an average of 2.33 goals. The strongest signal concerns the first half: the hosts held a lead at the break in 3 of 4 matches (75%), scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded none, while the visitors failed to score before half-time and were behind at the break in 67% of their matches. Tlaxcala also produce significantly more shots on target, 4.75 compared with 2.33, supporting the scenario of taking early control of the game. Although Tampico’s current form is better, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, the hosts have the more favourable home profile, while their opponents are still conceding an average of 2.0 goals across their last five games. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore 1/1, with Tlaxcala leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle.