Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: match statistics
Tlaxcala displays solid home form with a 44% win rate at their own ground and a positive goal difference (+1) at home. The hosts score an average of 1.22 goals per match in home games, and their xG (1.77) exceeds their actual goal tally, suggesting potential for improved finishing. Leones Negros have very poor away form with only a 30% win rate and a negative goal difference (-9) on the road, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. In 40% of their away matches, the visitors fail to score, which, combined with their weak defense (only 10% clean sheets), poses a serious problem. The recent form of both teams (Tlaxcala: 1.2 PPG, Leones Negros: 0.8 PPG) and the hosts' advantage in possession (49% vs 45%) further support a Tlaxcala victory. Considering all statistics, the home side has a realistic chance of securing three points, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to the relatively balanced overall form of both teams.
Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tlaxcala play Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match date is 8 February 2026 at 19:00. Final score: 5:2.
Current form
Tlaxcala: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tlaxcala scores 1.07 and concedes 1.57 goals per match. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores 1.20 and concedes 1.53. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tlaxcala 50%, Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 57%. Over 2.5: Tlaxcala 50%, Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 43%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.50. Tlaxcala: 12.4 shots per match, Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 12.5.
Match halves
Tlaxcala: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.54. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Tlaxcala: 76-90+ (11 goals). Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 46-60 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Tlaxcala displays solid home form with a 44% win rate at their own ground and a positive goal difference (+1) at home. The hosts score an average of 1.22 goals per match in home games, and their xG (1.77) exceeds their actual goal tally, suggesting potential for improved finishing. Leones Negros have very poor away form with only a 30% win rate and a negative goal difference (-9) on the road, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. In 40% of their away matches, the visitors fail to score, which, combined with their weak defense (only 10% clean sheets), poses a serious problem. The recent form of both teams (Tlaxcala: 1.2 PPG, Leones Negros: 0.8 PPG) and the hosts' advantage in possession (49% vs 45%) further support a Tlaxcala victory. Considering all statistics, the home side has a realistic chance of securing three points, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to the relatively balanced overall form of both teams.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tlaxcala | Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tlaxcala is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Tlaxcala · 0.8 pts / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
1.07 goals / match - Tlaxcala · 1.2 goals / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Tlaxcala scores in 64% of matches (18 of 28 matches), while Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 30 matches).
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Tlaxcala keeps a clean sheet in 25% (7 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Tlaxcala
Over / Under — Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tlaxcala - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tlaxcala
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tlaxcala | Liga | Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.64 | 2.85 | ▼ 2.73 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 53% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 25% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 68% | 74% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 80% | • 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tlaxcala 0 - 1 - 0 Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tlaxcala 5:2 Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara?
Tlaxcala score 1.07 goals per game on average and Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 1.20. The Ascenso MX average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Tlaxcala's matches and 57% of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's.
What form are Tlaxcala and Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara in?
Over the last 5 games Tlaxcala have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara?
The statistical background for Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.