Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: match statistics
Tlaxcala displays solid home form with a 44% win rate at their own ground and a positive goal difference (+1) at home. The hosts score an average of 1.22 goals per match in home games, and their xG (1.77) exceeds their actual goal tally, suggesting potential for improved finishing. Leones Negros have very poor away form with only a 30% win rate and a negative goal difference (-9) on the road, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. In 40% of their away matches, the visitors fail to score, which, combined with their weak defense (only 10% clean sheets), poses a serious problem. The recent form of both teams (Tlaxcala: 1.2 PPG, Leones Negros: 0.8 PPG) and the hosts' advantage in possession (49% vs 45%) further support a Tlaxcala victory. Considering all statistics, the home side has a realistic chance of securing three points, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to the relatively balanced overall form of both teams.
Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Tlaxcala played against Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on February 8, 2026. Final score: 5:2.
Recent form
Tlaxcala has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Tlaxcala scores 1.06 goals per game and allows 1.89. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores 1.30 and allows 1.40. Games in this league average 2.90 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 61% of Tlaxcala's games and 50% of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's. The Over 2.5 rates are 61% and 40%, compared with league averages of 55% for BTTS and 53% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Tlaxcala has the higher season xG average, 1.65 to 1.53 per game. Tlaxcala takes 13.9 shots per game, while Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara takes 12.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Tlaxcala leads at halftime in 33% of its games and scores 0.56 goals per game after halftime. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara leads at halftime in 30% and scores 0.75 after halftime.
When the teams score
Tlaxcala's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (9 goals). For Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara, it is minutes 76-90+ (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.90 goals. Both teams score in 55% of games, and 53% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tlaxcala displays solid home form with a 44% win rate at their own ground and a positive goal difference (+1) at home. The hosts score an average of 1.22 goals per match in home games, and their xG (1.77) exceeds their actual goal tally, suggesting potential for improved finishing. Leones Negros have very poor away form with only a 30% win rate and a negative goal difference (-9) on the road, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. In 40% of their away matches, the visitors fail to score, which, combined with their weak defense (only 10% clean sheets), poses a serious problem. The recent form of both teams (Tlaxcala: 1.2 PPG, Leones Negros: 0.8 PPG) and the hosts' advantage in possession (49% vs 45%) further support a Tlaxcala victory. Considering all statistics, the home side has a realistic chance of securing three points, although a draw cannot be ruled out due to the relatively balanced overall form of both teams.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Tlaxcala | Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 27% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Tlaxcala is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Tlaxcala · 0.8 pts / game - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara is 23% better for: goals scored per game.
1.06 goals / game - Tlaxcala · 1.3 goals / game - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara is 35% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.89 goals / game - Tlaxcala · 1.4 goals / game - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Tlaxcala scores in 72% of games (13 of 18 meczów), while Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 meczów).
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores in 70% of games (14 of 20 meczów), while Tlaxcala keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tlaxcala
Over / Under - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tlaxcala - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 28%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Tlaxcala
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tlaxcala | Liga | Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.94 | 2.90 | ▼ 2.70 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 61% | 55% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 61% | 53% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 26% | • 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 76% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 79% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Leones Negros de la Universidad de GuadalajaraSubstitutionOn: Olaf González ManzanoOff: Juan de Dios Aguayo Moreno
- Leones Negros de la Universidad de GuadalajaraGoalCarlos Ernesto Cisneros BarajasAssist: Bryan Flores
- Leones Negros de la Universidad de GuadalajaraSubstitutionOn: Raúl Erasmo Camacho LastraOff: Édson Ulises Rivera Vargas
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Tlaxcala's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tlaxcala 5:2 Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara?
Tlaxcala score 1.06 goals per game on average and Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 1.30. The Ascenso MX average is 2.90 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Tlaxcala's matches and 50% of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's.
What form are Tlaxcala and Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara in?
Over the last 5 games Tlaxcala have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara?
The statistical background for Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.