Tobol vs Altay: match statistics
Tobol vs Altay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tobol play Altay in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match date is 28 June 2026 at 15:00. Venue: Astana Arena. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Tobol: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Altay: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tobol scores 1.11 and concedes 1.44 goals per match. Altay scores 0.78 and concedes 1.22. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tobol 61%, Altay 44%. Over 2.5: Tobol 50%, Altay 28%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Tobol has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.25. Tobol: 13.3 shots per match, Altay: 10.7.
Match halves
Tobol: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.56. Altay: half-time lead 6%, second-half goals 0.61.
Goals by minute
Tobol: 0-15 (5 goals). Altay: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Tobol has a clear home advantage — they average 1.33 goals per game and generate xG 1.84, while Altay on the road averages only 0.67 goals per game and xG 1.27. The hosts register significantly more shots (16.83 vs 11.33) and more shots on target (5 vs 4.17), which translates into better chance creation. The difference in efficiency is also visible in the share of matches without a goal — Tobol failed to score in 17% of home games, while Altay were goalless in 50% of away matches, which favors the hosts. Defensively both teams concede on average 1.17 goals in their respective contexts, but Tobol has 33% clean sheets at home compared to Altay’s 0% clean sheets away, suggesting greater defensive stability from the hosts. Considering the higher quality of created chances (xG 1.84 vs 1.27), the larger number of shots and the lower percentage of matches without a goal, I predict a Tobol win; probabilities estimated at 60% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 15% for the visitors.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tobol | Altay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tobol is 42% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Tobol · 0.78 goals / match - Altay
Altay is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.44 goals / match - Tobol · 1.22 goals / match - Altay
Tobol scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while Altay keeps a clean sheet in 28% (5 of 18 matches).
Altay scores in 56% of matches (10 of 18 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Tobol
Over / Under — Altay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tobol is 78% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - Tobol · 0.72 pts / match - Altay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Altay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 6% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tobol
Altay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Tobol | Liga | Altay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.56 | 2.31 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 61% | 52% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 42% | ▼ 28% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 29% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | • 61% | 62% | ▼ 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 70% | ▼ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tobol 0 - 0 - 1 Altay. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tobol vs Altay?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Tobol 3:1 Altay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tobol vs Altay?
Tobol score 1.11 goals per game on average and Altay 0.78. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Tobol's matches and 44% of Altay's.
What form are Tobol and Altay in?
Over the last 5 games Tobol have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Altay 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tobol vs Altay?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.