Tobol vs FC Caspiy: match statistics
Tobol vs FC Caspiy: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tobol play FC Caspiy in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match date is 26 April 2026 at 13:00. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Tobol: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. FC Caspiy: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tobol scores 1.11 and concedes 1.44 goals per match. FC Caspiy scores 0.89 and concedes 1.28. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tobol 61%, FC Caspiy 44%. Over 2.5: Tobol 50%, FC Caspiy 39%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Tobol has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.01. Tobol: 13.3 shots per match, FC Caspiy: 9.2.
Match halves
Tobol: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.56. FC Caspiy: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Tobol: 0-15 (5 goals). FC Caspiy: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Match description
I predict a home win (1). Tobol has a clear offensive edge — they average 1.5 goals per home match and scored 10 goals in their last five games, while FC Caspiy averages 0.25 goals on the road and 4 goals in their last 5 matches. The quality gap is also reflected in shots and efficiency: Tobol averages 12.5 shots and 3.5 on target per match with a 12% conversion rate, versus Caspiy’s 7 shots and 2.5 on target with a 4% conversion. xG confirms the home advantage — 1.41 xG for Tobol at home compared to 0.86 xG for Caspiy away, meaning the hosts generate about 0.55 xG more per game. It should be noted, however, that Tobol have not yet won at home (0% wins, 100% draws in home matches), so a draw is a realistic outcome. Nevertheless, the differences in finishing and the share of matches without a goal (hosts 0% goalless matches vs guests 75% such away games) are decisive, so I assign a 60% probability to a home win, 30% to a draw and 10% to an away victory.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tobol | FC Caspiy | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
FC Caspiy is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Tobol · 2 pts / match - FC Caspiy
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tobol is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Tobol · 0.89 goals / match - FC Caspiy
FC Caspiy is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.44 goals / match - Tobol · 1.28 goals / match - FC Caspiy
Tobol scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while FC Caspiy keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 matches).
FC Caspiy scores in 61% of matches (11 of 18 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Tobol
Over / Under — FC Caspiy
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tobol is 44% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - Tobol · 0.89 pts / match - FC Caspiy
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
FC Caspiy - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tobol
FC Caspiy
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Tobol | Liga | FC Caspiy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.56 | 2.31 | ▼ 2.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 61% | 52% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 42% | ▼ 39% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 29% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | • 61% | 62% | ▲ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 70% | ▼ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Tobol vs FC Caspiy?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Tobol 2:1 FC Caspiy. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tobol vs FC Caspiy?
Tobol score 1.11 goals per game on average and FC Caspiy 0.89. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Tobol's matches and 44% of FC Caspiy's.
What form are Tobol and FC Caspiy in?
Over the last 5 games Tobol have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and FC Caspiy 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tobol vs FC Caspiy?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tobol vs FC Caspiy: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.