Tobol vs Okzhetpes: match statistics
Tobol vs Okzhetpes: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tobol play Okzhetpes in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match date is 12 July 2026 at 14:00. Venue: Astana Arena. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Tobol: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Okzhetpes: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tobol scores 1.12 and concedes 1.47 goals per match. Okzhetpes scores 1.29 and concedes 1.41. League average: 2.26 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tobol 59%, Okzhetpes 71%. Over 2.5: Tobol 53%, Okzhetpes 59%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Okzhetpes has higher xG: 1.56 vs 1.55. Tobol: 13.3 shots per match, Okzhetpes: 13.2.
Match halves
Tobol: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.59. Okzhetpes: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.94.
Goals by minute
Tobol: 0-15 (5 goals). Okzhetpes: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.26 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 2-0-1. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 67%.
Match description
Based on the provided data, the favorites are the hosts — Tobol — due to superiority in chance creation: at home they average 1.57 goals per game with xG 1.84 and 16.71 shots per game, while Okzhetpes away averages 1.29 goals per game, xG 1.35 and only 11.86 shots. Defensively Tobol is more solid at home: on average 1.14 goals conceded per game and xG against 1.47, whereas Okzhetpes concedes 1.57 goals away and has xG against 1.69. The trend over the last five matches also favors Tobol — in their last 5 games the hosts scored 7 and conceded 5 (1.0 per game) with 1.4 points per game, while Okzhetpes scored 7 but conceded as many as 13 (2.6 per game) and average 1.0 point per game. Although Okzhetpes sit 3rd in the table versus Tobol’s 12th, the visitors have a higher shot conversion (11% vs 9%) and an identical average of 5.14 shots on target, so they can be dangerous despite fewer attempts. Taking into account the better xG for the hosts, Tobol’s lower average goals conceded and a 57% home win rate versus Okzhetpes’ 43% away win rate, I predict a Tobol victory.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tobol | Okzhetpes | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tobol is 125% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Tobol · 0.8 pts / match - Okzhetpes
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Okzhetpes is 15% better for: goals scored per match.
1.12 goals / match - Tobol · 1.29 goals / match - Okzhetpes
Tobol scores in 71% of matches (12 of 17 matches), while Okzhetpes keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
Okzhetpes scores in 88% of matches (15 of 17 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 12% (2 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Tobol
Over / Under — Okzhetpes
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tobol is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.29 pts / match - Tobol · 1 pts / match - Okzhetpes
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Okzhetpes - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tobol
Okzhetpes
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Tobol | Liga | Okzhetpes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.59 | 2.26 | ▲ 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 59% | 50% | ▲ 71% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 53% | 42% | ▲ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 31% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 59% | 61% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 69% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Tobol 2 - 0 - 1 Okzhetpes. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tobol vs Okzhetpes?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Tobol 3:1 Okzhetpes. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tobol and Okzhetpes?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Tobol won 2, Okzhetpes won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tobol vs Okzhetpes?
Tobol score 1.12 goals per game on average and Okzhetpes 1.29. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.26 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Tobol's matches and 71% of Okzhetpes's.
What form are Tobol and Okzhetpes in?
Over the last 5 games Tobol have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Okzhetpes 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tobol vs Okzhetpes?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.