Tobol vs Ordabasy: match statistics
Tobol vs Ordabasy: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Tobol played against Ordabasy in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The game was played on May 23, 2026. Venue: Astana Arena. Final score: 0:3.
Recent form
Tobol has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Ordabasy has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 2.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Tobol scores 0.90 goals per game and allows 1.60. Ordabasy scores 1.60 and allows 0.70. Games in this league average 2.06 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 60% of Tobol's games and 60% of Ordabasy's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 40%, compared with league averages of 49% for BTTS and 38% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Ordabasy has the higher season xG average, 1.85 to 1.48 per game. Tobol takes 13.7 shots per game, while Ordabasy takes 16.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Tobol leads at halftime in 10% of its games and scores 0.40 goals per game after halftime. Ordabasy leads at halftime in 30% and scores 1.10 after halftime.
When the teams score
Tobol's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (3 goals). For Ordabasy, it is minutes 76-90+ (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Kazakhstan Premier League games average 2.06 goals. Both teams score in 49% of games, and 38% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I expect an away win (Ordabasy). Ordabasy sit 2nd in the table compared to Tobol’s 14th, and their season goal differential is 16 scored and 7 conceded versus Tobol’s 9 scored and 16 conceded. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 8 and conceded only 1, averaging 2.6 points per match, while Tobol have scored 5 and conceded 5, only 1.4 points per match. Defensively Ordabasy have a clear edge: away they concede 0.5 goals per game on average and keep 50% clean sheets, whereas Tobol at home concede 1.0 goals on average and have 25% clean sheets. The hosts create more chances (at home on average 16 shots and 4.75 on target with xG 1.77 versus 11.75 shots, 4.25 on target and xG 1.41 for Ordabasy away), but the visitors’ higher efficiency (11% vs 9%) and current form lead me to favor Ordabasy.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes. Tobol at home has a BTTS rate of 67% and 0% clean sheets, while Ordabasy has a seasonal BTTS of 50% and 25% of matches without scoring. This is supported by xG figures: home xG 2.14 vs xG conceded 0.86, and Ordabasy xG 1.41 vs xG conceded 0.95, indicating both teams have realistic scoring chances. Shot stats show Tobol’s advantage (6.5 on target and 19.67 attempts per game vs 4.25 and 11.75 for Ordabasy), but the counterpoint is Ordabasy’s last 5 matches with only 0.2 goals conceded on average and 20% BTTS. Considering the home side’s 0% clean sheets and a theoretical 75% chance of the away side scoring (100%-25%=75%), I assign 70% to YES and 30% to NO.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are 1.50 for Tobol and 1.18 for Ordabasy, totaling 2.68 goals. Calculations are based on xG: home 2.14 and away 1.41, and xG against 0.95 (Tobol) and 0.86 (Ordabasy), which yields (2.14+0.86)/2=1.50 and (1.41+0.95)/2=1.18. Tobol averages 19.67 shots and 6.5 on target per match versus 11.75 and 4.25 for Ordabasy, and the percentage of matches with over 1.5 goals is 100% for Tobol and 75% for Ordabasy, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Season Over 2.5 rates are 50% (Tobol) and 25% (Ordabasy); the league averages 2.10 goals, and our expectation of 2.68 indicates a marginal edge for Over 2.5 (~50%) and a low probability for Over 3.5 (~28%). Based on this, I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal from the data.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I expect a draw at half-time because Ordabasy is level at the break in 75% of matches and on average does not concede before half-time (average goals conceded by half-time = 0.0), while Tobol averages 0.67 goals by half-time and leads in 33% of games. After the break the advantage should shift to Tobol: the home side scores on average 1.17 second-half goals, has as many as 5 goals in minutes 76–90 and wins home matches 67% seasonally. This is supported by higher xG and Tobol’s offensive activity — home xG is 2.14 versus 1.41 for the visitors, with an average of 19.67 shots and 6.5 on target compared to 11.75 and 4.25 for Ordabasy, which suggests greater pressure and chance creation after the interval. One should however account for the visitors’ form: Ordabasy have won 80% of their last 5 matches versus Tobol’s 40% in the same period, hence a half-time draw and a full-time draw are realistic alternatives. Considering these data, the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after the break (X/1) — I assign this option a 38% probability, with 18% for 1/1 and 18% for X/X as secondary outcomes.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Tobol | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Ordabasy is 117% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Tobol · 2.6 pts / game - Ordabasy
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ordabasy is 78% better for: goals scored per game.
0.9 goals / game - Tobol · 1.6 goals / game - Ordabasy
Ordabasy is 129% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.6 goals / game - Tobol · 0.7 goals / game - Ordabasy
Tobol scores in 70% of games (7 of 10 meczów), while Ordabasy keeps a clean sheet in 40% (4 of 10 meczów).
Ordabasy scores in 90% of games (9 of 10 meczów), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 10% (1 of 10 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tobol
Over / Under - Ordabasy
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ordabasy is 56% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.9 pts / game - Tobol · 1.4 pts / game - Ordabasy
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 10% of games and wins 20%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Ordabasy - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 60%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Tobol
Ordabasy
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Tobol | Liga | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.50 | 2.06 | ▲ 2.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 49% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 38% | ▲ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 10% | 32% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 60% | 57% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 70% | 67% | ▲ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Tobol's perspective: 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses against Ordabasy. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Tobol vs Ordabasy?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Tobol 0:3 Ordabasy. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tobol and Ordabasy?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Tobol won 2, Ordabasy won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tobol vs Ordabasy?
Tobol score 0.90 goals per game on average and Ordabasy 1.60. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.06 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Tobol's matches and 60% of Ordabasy's.
What form are Tobol and Ordabasy in?
Over the last 5 games Tobol have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Ordabasy 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tobol vs Ordabasy?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tobol vs Ordabasy: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.