Tobol vs Ulytau: match statistics

Tobol are very solid at home: they win 70% of their matches, score an average of 1.8 goals and lose only 10% of their home fixtures. Ulytau have won just 9% of their away games, average 0.64 goals scored, and fail to score in 45% of such matches. The hosts create significantly more in the final third, averaging 15 shots and 4.9 on target, compared with 10.82 and 2.64 respectively for the visitors. The difference is also reflected in chance quality: Tobol’s average home xG is 1.81, compared with Ulytau’s 1.20 away from home, although both defenses allow a similar amount of opponents’ xG: 1.45 and 1.43. Neither side’s recent form is perfect, but Tobol have won 2 of their last five matches, while Ulytau have won just 1. Combined with the hosts’ significant home advantage, this points to a 1 result.

The BTTS - No scenario has a slight edge, as Tobol keep a clean sheet in 42% of matches, while Ulytau fail to score in as many as 45% of games. The visitors score an average of just 0.64 goals per match and record 2.64 shots on target, clearly below Tobol’s 1.17 goals and 4.75 shots on target. BTTS has occurred in only 42% of Tobol’s matches, below the league average of 55%, although Ulytau’s figure stands at 55%. The last five matches provide some support for a Goal/Goal outcome, as both teams scored 1.2 goals and conceded 1.6 per game; however, the visitors’ poor 6% conversion rate limits their chances of breaking through. The most likely scenario therefore remains BTTS - No, with Ulytau the team most likely to fail to score.

The strongest signal is the limited number of very high-scoring results: 100% of Tobol’s matches and 91% of Ulytau’s games finished with fewer than 3.5 goals. Tobol concede just 0.75 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 42% of their appearances, clearly limiting the potential of Ulytau, who score only 0.64 goals per game this season. The hosts should create more chances, averaging 4.75 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 2.64, while Ulytau’s defense concedes an average of 1.36 goals. The last five matches for both teams were more open, averaging 2.8 goals, but even this upturn in form does not undermine the very strong Under 4 goals profile.

Tobol have won 58% of their matches this season, compared with just 9% for Ulytau, while the difference in average points is 1.92 to 0.73. The hosts are more likely to take the lead at the break (33%) than the visitors (9%), and over their last five matches these figures stand at 60% and 20%, respectively; during that period, Ulytau were trailing at half-time in as many as 80% of their appearances. Tobol create significantly more goal threat, averaging 4.75 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 2.64, while Ulytau score just 0.64 goals per away match. After the break, the hosts concede an average of only 0.25 goals, whereas the visitors allow opponents 0.82 goals, favouring Tobol’s ability to preserve or extend an early lead. The strongest scenario is therefore a Tobol lead at half-time followed by a home win at the final whistle, corresponding to the HT/FT pick 1/1.