Tochigi vs Montedio Yamagata: match statistics

Montedio Yamagata have shown clearly better form over their last five matches, winning 3 games and averaging 1.8 points per match, while Tochigi recorded just 1 victory and averaged 1 point. The visitors scored 10 goals during this period, 4 more than the hosts, translating to an average of 2.0 goals per game compared with 1.2. Tochigi also conceded 9 goals in five matches, an average of 1.8, compared with 6 goals conceded by Montedio Yamagata. The visitors’ run includes three wins in their last five appearances, whereas the hosts have lost their last two matches, so the away side should be given the greater winning chances. The lack of complete season data limits confidence in the forecast, but Montedio’s advantage in scoring efficiency and recent results is clear.

BTTS - No has a slight edge, as the league-wide BTTS rate is only 40%, while Montedio Yamagata recorded this scenario in just 20% of their last 5 matches. The visitors are in good attacking form, scoring an average of 2.0 goals, but they concede only 1.2 goals per match, which also favors one-sided results. During this period, Tochigi scored 1.2 goals and conceded 1.8, with BTTS occurring in 60% of their matches, so the risk of the home side scoring remains significant. High recent xG figures—1.76 for Tochigi and 1.83 for Montedio—limit confidence in the pick, but the visitors’ low BTTS rate and the league profile suggest that at least one side may fail to score.

Data from the last 5 matches points to a game with scoring potential: Tochigi averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Montedio Yamagata scored 2.0 and conceded 1.2 goals per game. The combined goals average across these runs is 3.0 for Tochigi and 3.2 for Yamagata, clearly above the league average of 2.4. Both teams also created quality chances, with average xG over the last five matches standing at 1.76 for the hosts and 1.83 for the visitors. The Over 1.5 goals line offers the greatest edge, as just two goals would be enough to reflect Yamagata’s high attacking activity and Tochigi’s defensive vulnerability, having conceded 9 goals in their last 5 appearances.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Montedio Yamagata win at full-time. In their last five matches, both teams were level at the break in 60% of cases, while Yamagata had not trailed at half-time on any occasion. The visitors averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded before the break, whereas Tochigi’s first-half record stood at 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Full-time form also clearly favors Yamagata: they won 60% of their recent matches and averaged 2.0 goals, compared with Tochigi’s 20% win rate and 1.2 goals per match. After the break, the visitors score an average of 1.2 goals, while the hosts concede 1.0, so Yamagata’s advantage is most likely to emerge in the second half.