Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa Reysol: match statistics

Kashiwa Reysol are 6th, while Tokyo Verdy sit 11th. More importantly, the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals in the process. Over the same period, Tokyo Verdy recorded just 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, conceding as many as 12 goals while scoring only 5. In their only home match so far, the hosts drew but allowed their opponents to register an xG of 1.73, higher than their own xG of 1.45, indicating problems in limiting the quality of chances. Verdy average 15 shots and 4 on target, but convert just 7% of their attempts, meaning their finishing efficiency does not offset their weaker defensive performance. Kashiwa started the season with a 2:1 win and, given their significantly better goalscoring trend, should have the greater chance of victory, although the small sample size increases the risk of a draw.

The scenario of both teams scoring is supported by Kashiwa’s form: they have averaged 2.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Tokyo Verdy have conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game. The hosts have scored just 1.0 goal per match during this period, but the visitors’ defense has allowed opponents an average of 1.2 goals, and Tokyo have an xG of 1.27. Kashiwa have created an average of 1.35 xG, while Tokyo’s defensive xG stood at 1.70, clearly increasing the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, while the league average is a high 70%, making it more likely that each side will score at least one goal.

Tokyo Verdy’s last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, with the team scoring 1.0 and conceding as many as 2.4. Kashiwa Reysol are in clearly strong attacking form: over the same period, they averaged 2.6 goals scored per match, while conceding 1.2. Their goal-scoring potential is also supported by xG figures from the last five matches: 1.27 for the home side and 1.35 for the visitors, while Verdy’s defense allowed opponents an xG of 1.70. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest data-backed option, as the two teams collectively create a match profile close to 2.9 goals, while the league average stands at a high 3.6 goals.

Kashiwa Reysol are showing significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals and conceding 1.2, while Tokyo Verdy have recorded just 1 victory, with a goals-for/goals-against average of 1.0 to 2.4. The visitors led at the break in 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before half-time, whereas Tokyo did not lead at the break on any occasion and scored only 0.2 goals on average. The hosts were trailing after 45 minutes in 40% of these matches and conceded an average of 1.0 first-half goal, reinforcing the scenario of an early Kashiwa lead. After the interval, Tokyo still concede an average of 1.4 goals, making it most likely that the visitors will maintain their lead until the final whistle. The hosts’ data from one home match is favourable, but given the very small sample size, greater weight should be placed on Kashiwa’s clearly superior five-match run.