Toluca vs Atlas: match statistics
Toluca presents a dominant form, especially at their own stadium, where they achieve a 71% win rate and maintain an impressive goal difference (+24). In their last five fixtures, the hosts have amassed 12 points (4 wins), scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game. Atlas, on the other hand, performs very poorly in away matches, losing as much as 69% of their games and conceding an average of 2.15 goals per match while scoring a mere 0.92. The difference in play quality is also evident in the xG statistics, with Toluca generating an average of 1.96 xG in home matches, whereas Atlas records only 0.93 xG on the road. Considering the visitors' abysmal form in their last five games (just 1.2 points per match) and their 38% failure to score rate in away matches, the hosts' advantage is overwhelming. All key indicators unequivocally point to a confident victory for Toluca.
Toluca vs Atlas: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Toluca played against Atlas in Liga MX (Mexico). The game was played on March 15, 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Toluca has 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 3.00 points per game. Atlas has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Toluca scores 2.03 goals per game and allows 0.88. Atlas scores 1.37 and allows 1.85. Games in this league average 2.94 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 52% of Toluca's games and 59% of Atlas's. The Over 2.5 rates are 55% and 59%, compared with league averages of 58% for BTTS and 56% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Toluca has the higher season xG average, 1.82 to 1.11 per game. Toluca takes 17.6 shots per game, while Atlas takes 10.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Toluca leads at halftime in 42% of its games and scores 1.12 goals per game after halftime. Atlas leads at halftime in 37% and scores 0.63 after halftime.
When the teams score
Toluca's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (16 goals). For Atlas, it is minutes 0-15 (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Liga MX games average 2.94 goals. Both teams score in 58% of games, and 56% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca presents a dominant form, especially at their own stadium, where they achieve a 71% win rate and maintain an impressive goal difference (+24). In their last five fixtures, the hosts have amassed 12 points (4 wins), scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game. Atlas, on the other hand, performs very poorly in away matches, losing as much as 69% of their games and conceding an average of 2.15 goals per match while scoring a mere 0.92. The difference in play quality is also evident in the xG statistics, with Toluca generating an average of 1.96 xG in home matches, whereas Atlas records only 0.93 xG on the road. Considering the visitors' abysmal form in their last five games (just 1.2 points per match) and their 38% failure to score rate in away matches, the hosts' advantage is overwhelming. All key indicators unequivocally point to a confident victory for Toluca.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Toluca is 150% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / game - Toluca · 1.2 pts / game - Atlas
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 48% better for: goals scored per game.
2.03 goals / game - Toluca · 1.37 goals / game - Atlas
Toluca is 110% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.88 goals / game - Toluca · 1.85 goals / game - Atlas
Toluca scores in 76% of games (25 of 33 meczów), while Atlas keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 meczów).
Atlas scores in 74% of games (20 of 27 meczów), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 39% (13 of 33 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Atlas
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / game - Toluca · 1.41 pts / game - Atlas
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 42% of games and wins 64%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Atlas - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 37% of games and wins 33%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (16 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Toluca
Atlas
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.91 | 2.94 | ▲ 3.22 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 58% | • 59% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 55% | 56% | ▲ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 24% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 73% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | • 76% | 77% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Toluca's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Atlas. Games average 0.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Atlas?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 1:1 Atlas. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca score 2.03 goals per game on average and Atlas 1.37. The Liga MX average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Toluca's matches and 59% of Atlas's.
What form are Toluca and Atlas in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Atlas 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Atlas?
The statistical background for Toluca vs Atlas — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.