Toluca vs Cruz Azul: match statistics
Toluca displays impressive home form with a 69% win rate at home and only 8% losses, averaging 2.69 goals scored per match and just 1.23 conceded. The hosts are in excellent form, averaging 2.2 points per match in their last five games without a defeat. Cruz Azul, despite a solid overall record, has significantly weaker away statistics – only 42% wins and as many as 42% draws, with an average of just 1.58 goals scored away from home. The difference in expected goals (xG) also favors Toluca: 2.1 xG For at home compared to Cruz Azul's 1.61 xG For away. Additionally, the hosts have an advantage in ball possession (58% vs 53%) and a significantly better shot accuracy. Considering all these factors, Toluca holds a clear advantage in this clash.
Toluca vs Cruz Azul: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Toluca played against Cruz Azul in Liga MX (Mexico). The game was played on February 7, 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Toluca has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.20 points per game. Cruz Azul has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Toluca scores 2.00 goals per game and allows 0.93. Cruz Azul scores 1.80 and allows 1.16. Games in this league average 2.95 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 52% of Toluca's games and 64% of Cruz Azul's. The Over 2.5 rates are 56% and 52%, compared with league averages of 57% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Cruz Azul has the higher season xG average, 1.90 to 1.82 per game. Toluca takes 17.6 shots per game, while Cruz Azul takes 17.6.
First-half and second-half trends
Toluca leads at halftime in 41% of its games and scores 1.07 goals per game after halftime. Cruz Azul leads at halftime in 32% and scores 1.04 after halftime.
When the teams score
Toluca's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (15 goals). For Cruz Azul, it is minutes 76-90+ (14 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Liga MX games average 2.95 goals. Both teams score in 57% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca displays impressive home form with a 69% win rate at home and only 8% losses, averaging 2.69 goals scored per match and just 1.23 conceded. The hosts are in excellent form, averaging 2.2 points per match in their last five games without a defeat. Cruz Azul, despite a solid overall record, has significantly weaker away statistics – only 42% wins and as many as 42% draws, with an average of just 1.58 goals scored away from home. The difference in expected goals (xG) also favors Toluca: 2.1 xG For at home compared to Cruz Azul's 1.61 xG For away. Additionally, the hosts have an advantage in ball possession (58% vs 53%) and a significantly better shot accuracy. Considering all these factors, Toluca holds a clear advantage in this clash.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Toluca is 10% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / game - Toluca · 2 pts / game - Cruz Azul
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 11% better for: goals scored per game.
2 goals / game - Toluca · 1.8 goals / game - Cruz Azul
Toluca is 25% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.93 goals / game - Toluca · 1.16 goals / game - Cruz Azul
Toluca scores in 70% of games (19 of 27 meczów), while Cruz Azul keeps a clean sheet in 32% (8 of 25 meczów).
Cruz Azul scores in 88% of games (22 of 25 meczów), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 37% (10 of 27 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Cruz Azul
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.59 pts / game - Toluca · 1.4 pts / game - Cruz Azul
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 41% of games and wins 59%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Cruz Azul - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 32% of games and wins 56%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Toluca
Cruz Azul
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.93 | 2.95 | • 2.96 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 57% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 54% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 37% | 25% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 72% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 76% | ▲ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Toluca's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Cruz Azul. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 1:1 Cruz Azul. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
Toluca score 2.00 goals per game on average and Cruz Azul 1.80. The Liga MX average is 2.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Toluca's matches and 64% of Cruz Azul's.
What form are Toluca and Cruz Azul in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Cruz Azul 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
The statistical background for Toluca vs Cruz Azul — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.