Toluca vs Guadalajara: match statistics
Toluca displays impressive home form with 67% of matches won at home and only 7% losses, making them a very difficult opponent at their own stadium. The hosts average 2.47 goals per home match with an xG of 2.01, indicating an effective offense that exceeds expectations. Guadalajara, despite good recent form (4 wins in the last 5 matches), has a significantly weaker away record with only 54% wins and 38% losses, averaging just 1.46 goals scored on the road. A key factor is the difference in efficiency: Toluca has a conversion rate of 13% in home matches compared to Guadalajara's 10% away, alongside a possession advantage (58% vs 55%). The hosts' solid defense (only 1 goal conceded in the last 5 matches) and a goal difference of +20 in home games versus just +3 for Guadalajara away argue for a Toluca victory, though the visitors' form does not preclude a draw or an upset.
Toluca vs Guadalajara: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Toluca played against Guadalajara in Liga MX (Mexico). The game was played on February 28, 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Recent form
Toluca has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. Guadalajara has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 2.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Toluca scores 1.97 goals per game and allows 0.87. Guadalajara scores 1.65 and allows 1.19. Games in this league average 2.93 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Toluca's games and 54% of Guadalajara's. The Over 2.5 rates are 53% and 58%, compared with league averages of 57% for BTTS and 55% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Toluca has the higher season xG average, 1.81 to 1.53 per game. Toluca takes 17.4 shots per game, while Guadalajara takes 14.6.
First-half and second-half trends
Toluca leads at halftime in 43% of its games and scores 1.07 goals per game after halftime. Guadalajara leads at halftime in 46% and scores 0.69 after halftime.
When the teams score
Toluca's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (15 goals). For Guadalajara, it is minutes 31-45+ (12 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Liga MX games average 2.93 goals. Both teams score in 57% of games, and 55% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca displays impressive home form with 67% of matches won at home and only 7% losses, making them a very difficult opponent at their own stadium. The hosts average 2.47 goals per home match with an xG of 2.01, indicating an effective offense that exceeds expectations. Guadalajara, despite good recent form (4 wins in the last 5 matches), has a significantly weaker away record with only 54% wins and 38% losses, averaging just 1.46 goals scored on the road. A key factor is the difference in efficiency: Toluca has a conversion rate of 13% in home matches compared to Guadalajara's 10% away, alongside a possession advantage (58% vs 55%). The hosts' solid defense (only 1 goal conceded in the last 5 matches) and a goal difference of +20 in home games versus just +3 for Guadalajara away argue for a Toluca victory, though the visitors' form does not preclude a draw or an upset.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Toluca | Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Guadalajara is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / game - Toluca · 2.4 pts / game - Guadalajara
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 19% better for: goals scored per game.
1.97 goals / game - Toluca · 1.65 goals / game - Guadalajara
Toluca is 37% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.87 goals / game - Toluca · 1.19 goals / game - Guadalajara
Toluca scores in 73% of games (22 of 30 meczów), while Guadalajara keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 meczów).
Guadalajara scores in 77% of games (20 of 26 meczów), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 40% (12 of 30 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toluca
Over / Under - Guadalajara
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 43% of games and wins 60%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Guadalajara - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 46% of games and wins 58%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Toluca
Guadalajara
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Toluca | Liga | Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.83 | 2.93 | • 2.85 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▼ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 55% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 24% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 74% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 77% | 75% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Record from Toluca's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Guadalajara. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Toluca vs Guadalajara?
The Liga MX match finished Toluca 2:0 Guadalajara. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toluca vs Guadalajara?
Toluca score 1.97 goals per game on average and Guadalajara 1.65. The Liga MX average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Toluca's matches and 54% of Guadalajara's.
What form are Toluca and Guadalajara in?
Over the last 5 games Toluca have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Guadalajara 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toluca vs Guadalajara?
The statistical background for Toluca vs Guadalajara — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.