Toronto vs FC Cincinnati: match statistics
Toronto vs FC Cincinnati: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Toronto play FC Cincinnati in MLS (United States). The match date is 11 April 2026 at 19:00. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Toronto: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. FC Cincinnati: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Toronto scores 1.38 and concedes 1.81 goals per match. FC Cincinnati scores 2.50 and concedes 2.50. League average: 3.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Toronto 75%, FC Cincinnati 75%. Over 2.5: Toronto 63%, FC Cincinnati 69%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
FC Cincinnati has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.34. Toronto: 11.7 shots per match, FC Cincinnati: 13.4.
Match halves
Toronto: half-time lead 6%, second-half goals 1.06. FC Cincinnati: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.38.
Goals by minute
Toronto: 76-90+ (9 goals). FC Cincinnati: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS: 3.31 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Toronto possesses a clear home advantage: at home they average 2.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game, with a conversion rate of 15%, whereas FC Cincinnati away average 1.00 scored and 3.67 conceded with a conversion of just 7%. Both teams register a similar number of shots (Toronto 13.67 with 6.00 on target; Cincinnati 15.00 with 6.33 on target), but the hosts convert chances far more efficiently, translating into a higher goal output. In the last 5 matches Toronto's record is 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 7, while Cincinnati scored 11 and conceded 18 in their last five, and have 0 away wins (loss% 100). xG analysis shows Toronto at home with xG for 1.59 and xG against 1.29 (difference +0.30), whereas Cincinnati away have xG for 1.74 and xG against 1.89 (difference -0.15), confirming the hosts' superior underlying performance. Considering finishing efficiency (15% vs 7%), the lower average goals conceded (1.33 vs 3.67) and Toronto's 67% home win rate versus the visitors' 0% away win rate, I expect a Toronto victory.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Toronto | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
FC Cincinnati is 300% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Toronto · 1.6 pts / match - FC Cincinnati
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
FC Cincinnati is 81% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Toronto · 2.5 goals / match - FC Cincinnati
Toronto is 38% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.81 goals / match - Toronto · 2.5 goals / match - FC Cincinnati
Toronto scores in 81% of matches (13 of 16 matches), while FC Cincinnati keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 16 matches).
FC Cincinnati scores in 88% of matches (14 of 16 matches), while Toronto keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Toronto
Over / Under — FC Cincinnati
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
FC Cincinnati is 81% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.69 pts / match - Toronto · 1.25 pts / match - FC Cincinnati
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toronto - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 6% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
FC Cincinnati - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 100% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 0% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Toronto
FC Cincinnati
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| Toronto | Liga | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.19 | 3.31 | ▲ 5.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 61% | ▲ 75% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 63% | 63% | ▲ 69% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 22% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 77% | ▼ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 80% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Toronto 1 - 0 - 0 FC Cincinnati. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Toronto vs FC Cincinnati?
The MLS match finished Toronto 1:1 FC Cincinnati. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toronto vs FC Cincinnati?
Toronto score 1.38 goals per game on average and FC Cincinnati 2.50. The MLS average is 3.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Toronto's matches and 75% of FC Cincinnati's.
What form are Toronto and FC Cincinnati in?
Over the last 5 games Toronto have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and FC Cincinnati 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toronto vs FC Cincinnati?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Toronto vs FC Cincinnati: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.