Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi: match statistics

Dinamo Tbilisi sit 2nd, while Torpedo Kutaisi are sixth, and the visitors have recorded 10 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 8. Away from home, Dinamo average 1.80 goals and create chances worth 1.86 xG per match, clearly above Torpedo’s 1.54 xG at home. The visitors also register more shots, 15.2 compared to 12.17, and test the opposition goalkeeper more accurately, averaging 5.7 shots on target per game versus Torpedo’s 4.5. However, the hosts are in poor current form: they have collected just 4 points in their last five matches and conceded 12 goals, while Dinamo have taken 6 points over the same period. Torpedo can be dangerous at home, where they score 1.75 goals per match, but Dinamo’s away defense concedes just 1.00 goal, and only 10% of such matches have ended in defeat, which strongly favors the visitors.

BTTS - Yes is more likely, as both teams have regularly been involved in matches with goals at both ends this season: Torpedo has recorded this outcome in 58% of matches, while Dinamo has done so in as many as 70%. Both sides create plenty of chances, as reflected by average xG figures of 1.72 for the hosts and 1.86 for the visitors, along with 4.83 and 5.70 shots on target per match, respectively. Their last five outings also point to an open game: Torpedo conceded an average of 2.4 goals, while Dinamo conceded 2.6, with BTTS standing at 60% for each side. Dinamo's defensive advantage is limited because, despite keeping a clean sheet in 30% of matches, their opponent averages 1.72 xG, while Torpedo keeps a clean sheet in only 17% of games. A scenario with goals from both teams is therefore stronger than the BTTS - No option, in which at least one side fails to score.

The attacking profile of both teams points to an open game: Torpedo’s average xG is 1.72, while Dinamo’s stands at 1.86. The visitors average 15.2 shots and 5.7 shots on target per match, while the hosts respond with 14.0 attempts and 4.83 shots on target. In their last five matches, Torpedo conceded an average of 2.4 goals, while Dinamo conceded as many as 2.6, with both teams going Over 2.5 goals in 60% and 80% of those games, respectively. The Over 1.5 goals line offers the greatest edge, as it was covered in 75% of Torpedo’s matches and 70% of Dinamo’s matches throughout the season, while the projected total of 3.03 goals is clearly above this threshold.

Torpedo have a case for making the better start: in their last five matches, they led at the break in 40% of cases, while Dinamo were behind at half-time as often as 60% of the time, scoring only 0.4 goals on average in those first halves. The hosts average 0.83 goals before the break, while the visitors concede 0.70 during this phase, supporting the scenario of a Torpedo lead. After the interval, however, Dinamo remain dangerous, averaging 0.90 goals scored and just 0.30 conceded, so the risk of a turnaround remains significant. Nevertheless, Torpedo have home advantage, and their xG stands at 1.72 compared with Dinamo’s average xG conceded of 1.32; therefore, the most likely outcome remains a Torpedo lead at half-time followed by a home win at full-time. This selection is also supported by the fact that Dinamo have lost only 10% of their matches this season, meaning the distribution remains relatively balanced and the 1/1 pick has a moderate rather than dominant edge.