Trans vs Tallinna FC Flora: match statistics

I predict a win for Tallinna FC Flora. The away side sit 3rd in the table versus Trans in 10th and have won 5 of their last 5 matches, scoring 15 and conceding just 1, while Trans over those five fixtures have 0 wins, 0 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home Trans average 17 shots with 5.4 on target, 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match, and their home xG is 2.05; despite that their form is poor (0 points in last 5). The visitors on the road control the game for around 60% possession, average 14.8 shots and 4.8 shots on target with an away xG of 1.88; Flora’s season-long shutout rate is 40%, but the last 5 matches contradict that (15 goals scored). Considering the extreme form gap (15–0 in goals to Flora’s advantage) and the visitors’ superiority in possession and efficiency in recent matches, I give the away side the higher probability.

Trans at home averages 3.0 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded per match, with 67% clean sheets and a seasonal BTTS of 17%, which strongly favors No Goal. Tallinna FC Flora away has seasonal figures of 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded with a seasonal BTTS of 40%, so season-long data points to the home side being more defensively solid. However, in the last 5 matches Flora scored 15 goals (3.0 per match) and conceded 1 in total (0.2), while Trans scored none and conceded 19 (3.8 per match) in the same period, which increases the risk of a Goal/Goal. Despite Flora’s short-term form advantage, Trans’s seasonal indicators — home xG 2.01 versus xG against 1.31 and a league home advantage of 58% — suggest a stronger signal for BTTS - No. Therefore I assess No at 70% vs Yes 30%.

Seasonal statistics indicate high goal potential: Trans has a seasonal goals average of 3.00, Tallinna FC Flora 0.80, and the league averages 3.22 goals per match; the percentage of matches over 1.5 goals is 83% for Trans and 80% for Flora. xG and recent form analysis also point to an offensive profile: xG for Trans is 2.01 versus 1.88 for Flora, and xG against both teams is about 1.3, which in my calculation yields expected goals of 1.42 for the home side and 1.74 for the visitors (total 3.16). Additionally, the last 5 matches are telling — Trans in their last 5 matches scored 0 and conceded 19 (avg 3.8 per match), while Flora scored 15 and conceded 1 (avg 3.0 scored and 0.2 conceded), which increases the likelihood of multiple goals. Shot and conversion metrics also support goals: Trans averages 16.33 shots and 5.67 on target with an 18% conversion, Flora 14.8 and 4.8 with a 5% conversion, so Trans has higher shooting efficiency. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 88%), Over 2.5 also has solid support (66%), and Over 3.5 is less certain (37%); I recommend the Over side at the 1.5 line.

Season-long statistics strongly favor Trans: the home team scores an average of 3.0 goals per match and concedes 0.33, led at the break in 4 of 6 matches (67%) and averages 1.5 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.17. Trans also shows higher finishing efficiency: xG 2.01 versus Tallinna’s 1.88, 5.67 shots on target versus 4.8 and a conversion rate of 18% versus 5%, translating to a season win rate of 83% for the hosts versus 40% for the visitors. However, form over the last 5 matches is against Trans — the hosts lost their last 5 fixtures, failing to score by half-time in those five (0.0 average) and conceding an average of 1.8 goals before the break, while Tallinna have won 5/5 and averaged 1.2 goals by half-time. Considering Trans’s seasonal first-half advantage (1.5 vs 0.0) and the sizable conversion gap (18% vs 5%), I regard the scenario Trans leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) as the strongest signal (40%), although the hosts’ poor form increases the probability of a visitor turnaround (2/2 19%) and other HT/FT draw variants.