Treviso vs Lecco: match statistics

Both teams have produced very little offensively in their last five matches: Treviso have scored 4 goals, while Lecco have managed just 3. The hosts are clearly in poorer form, having lost 4 of their last 5 games and conceded 9 goals during that run—an average of 1.8 per match. Lecco have suffered only one defeat in this period, while as many as 4 matches ended in draws, pointing to a cautious style that is difficult to break down. The visitors have averaged 0.8 points across their last five league fixtures, compared with Treviso’s 0.2, although their lack of efficiency limits their chances of securing a convincing win. A low-scoring draw therefore appears to be the most likely outcome, although Lecco’s more stable run gives the visitors slightly better prospects than their away status alone would suggest.

The BTTS signal is not weak, as both teams have averaged only 0.8 and 0.6 goals respectively across their last five matches. BTTS landed in 40% of Treviso’s games and just 20% of Lecco’s matches during this period, well below the league average of 60%. Treviso failed to score in 100% of their available home matches this season, while Lecco have also yet to score away from home, although the sample size is very limited. The hosts do average 15 shots and 6 shots on target at home, but their latest xG is only 0.91, while Lecco create an average of 1.04 xG. Therefore, a scenario in which at least one team fails to score is more likely than both sides finding the net.

Treviso’s last five matches produced an average of 2.6 goals, but the team scored only 0.8 goals per game, while Lecco managed just 0.6 goals per match over the same period. The attacking potential of both sides is also limited: average xG stands at 0.91 for Treviso and 1.04 for Lecco. In the last five matches played by each team, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in only 40% of cases, below the league average of 50%. Lecco drew four of its last five matches, and only 20% of its games during this period ended with both teams scoring, further reducing the likelihood of an open game. The projected total of 2.06 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals option, as at least four goals are required for this bet to lose.

The strongest scenario is a draw both at half-time and at full-time, as Lecco drew 80% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% for Treviso. A cautious start is supported by the fact that the half-time draw occurred in 80% of Lecco’s matches and 50% of Treviso’s, with an average of just 1.0 goal scored in the first halves of matches involving either team. Treviso have recently averaged 0.8 goals per match, while Lecco have averaged 0.6; however, the visitors concede fewer goals, at 1.2 compared with the hosts’ 1.8. After the break, Treviso have averaged no goals scored, while Lecco have averaged just 0.2, so even if the second half produces a goal, a draw remains the most likely outcome.