Troszyn vs Lomza: match statistics

Troszyn is the favorite based on home metrics: the hosts score 2.69 goals per home match, average 16.44 shots per game (7.67 on target) with a shooting accuracy of 18%, a home goal differential of +25 and a 63% win rate. Lomza averages 1.88 goals on the road, 13.31 shots per game (5.77 on target) and a lower accuracy of 13%, which reduces the number of high-quality opportunities. In terms of chance quality, xG is 1.97 for Troszyn at home versus 1.80 xG for Lomza away; Troszyn concedes 1.06 xG against with 1.13 goals conceded, while Lomza has 1.37 xG against though actually concedes 1.00 goal. In the last 5 matches Lomza scored 14 goals (2.8 per match) and averages 2.4 points per game, compared to Troszyn’s 8 goals (1.6 per match) and 2.0 points, but the low percentage of shutout matches for the hosts (6% vs 25% for Lomza) plus a higher volume and quality of shots favors Troszyn. Therefore I forecast a home win; probability distribution: 52% Troszyn, 20% draw, 28% Lomza.

I back BTTS - Yes because both teams possess clear offensive potential: xG is 1.71 for Troszyn and 1.80 for Łomża, totaling 3.51, which is above the league average of 3.33 and favors a high-scoring affair. Łomża have scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 avg), while Troszyn average 2.69 goals this season, so both sides score regularly; this is supported by shots on target stats of 6.33 (Troszyn) versus 5.77 (Łomża) and conversion rates of 20% vs 13%. The main counterargument is Troszyn’s high clean sheet rate at 50% and season BTTS figures of 50% and 44% for home and away teams, plus only 40% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both teams, which reduces confidence. However, the visitors’ strong attack and the league BTTS rate of 61% prevail, so I assess BTTS probability at 63% versus 37% for No Goal.

The xG model, calculated as the average of xG_for and xG_against, yields 1.54 expected goals for Troszyn (1.71 and 1.37) and 1.44 for Łomża (1.80 and 1.07), totaling 2.98 expected goals. Seasonally, Troszyn’s matches have finished over 1.5 goals in 100% of cases, while Łomża’s matches have done so in 81% of cases, which strongly supports the Over 1.5 goals line. Troszyn scores an average of 2.69 goals per game with 14.33 shots and a 20% conversion rate, and Łomża has 14 goals in the last 5 matches (2.8 avg), so both teams generate genuine goal-scoring opportunities. The season share of matches over 2.5 is 69% for Troszyn and 50% for Łomża, and the league average is 3.33 goals, therefore the best and least risky selection based on the data is Over 1.5.

The main scenario is the home side leading at half-time and winning at full-time: the hosts led at the break in 9 matches (56%) and score an average of 1.13 goals by half-time versus Łomża’s 0.53. Over a full match Troszyn scores 2.69 goals and concedes 0.88 on average, while the visitors have 1.88 scored and 1.00 conceded; the hosts win 69% of matches versus Łomża’s 56%, which reinforces the 1/1 (lead at the break/win at full-time) scenario. Additionally, the hosts’ efficiency is better — xG is 1.71 against 1.80 for the visitors, but shot conversion is 20% for the hosts versus 13% for the visitors, and they register more shots on target (6.33 vs 5.77). Second-half data indicate the hosts often finish opponents off late: 13 goals in minutes 76–90 with only 1 conceded in that interval, versus 7 scored and 3 conceded by Łomża, suggesting maintenance of the lead after the break. Note that in the last 5 matches Łomża led at half-time in 75% and have a form of 4 wins from 5, but given Troszyn’s seasonal advantage in leading at the break (56% vs 20%) and superior efficiency, the safest pick remains 1/1.