Tukums II vs JFK Ventspils: match statistics

JFK Ventspils come into this match with a similar points return over their last five games (0.8 points per match), but their defensive record during this period is significantly stronger: they have conceded 8 goals, compared with 16 for Tukums II. The visitors average 1.75 goals per away game, versus 1.25 goals scored by the hosts at home, and they also convert 20% of their shots, compared with 10% for Tukums II. Ventspils enjoy more possession (53% to 45%), which should limit the number of attacks created by the hosts, despite Tukums II posting a slightly higher average home xG of 1.66 compared with 1.34. Both teams regularly concede goals—the hosts allow 1.75, while the visitors concede 1.88 per away match—so a draw remains a realistic outcome, but Ventspils’ better defensive organization of late points to a narrow victory.

JFK Ventspils average 1.75 goals per match and have not recorded a single game without scoring, while Tukums II concede an average of 1.63 goals. However, the hosts are less reliable offensively, averaging just 0.50 goals and failing to score in 63% of their matches, which clearly weakens the BTTS pick. Their recent scoring form is better, as they averaged 1.0 goal across their last five matches, while Ventspils conceded 1.6 goals and allowed 1.93 xG during that period. Both defenses kept a clean sheet in only 13% of matches, and the hosts’ 1.18 xG compared with the visitors’ 1.59 xG conceded indicates that Tukums II should create chances. BTTS - Yes is therefore slightly more likely, although the hosts’ low seasonal scoring output means the edge over the No Goal scenario for one of the teams remains marginal.

JFK Ventspils average 1.75 goals per match, while Tukums II concede 1.63 goals over the full season and as many as 3.2 in their last five matches. The hosts score just 0.5 goals on average, but their xG stands at 1.18, while the visitors’ defense allows an average of 1.59 xG and concedes 1.88 goals. The 1.5 line has been covered in 100% of Ventspils’ matches and 63% of Tukums II’s games, while the league averages 3.58 goals per match. Both teams keep a clean sheet in just 13% of their matches, further reducing the likelihood of a very tight game. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even with the hosts’ lower finishing efficiency, the visitors’ attacking potential and Tukums II’s defensive weaknesses clearly favor at least two goals.

JFK Ventspils have a clear first-half advantage: they led at the break in 63% of their matches and averaged 1.00 goals before half-time, while Tukums II have never held a half-time lead and scored just 0.25 goals on average. In their last five matches, the hosts were trailing at half-time in 60% of cases, conceding an average of 1.8 goals, whereas Ventspils averaged 1.0 goal scored and only 0.4 goals conceded during this period. The visitors are also more effective over the full match, averaging 1.75 goals scored compared with Tukums II’s 0.50, while their shot conversion rate stands at 20% versus 8% for the hosts. Tukums II have lost 75% of their matches this season and conceded as many as 3.2 goals per game over their last five fixtures, which supports the likelihood of the visiting side maintaining its lead. The risk of a second-half turnaround remains significant, as Ventspils concede an average of 1.25 goals after the break; however, the HT/FT scenario of the visitors leading at half-time and securing the final victory is the most strongly supported by the data.