Turan vs Sumqayıt: match statistics

I tip the home win: Turan sit 3rd in the table versus Sumqayıt’s 8th and have 14 wins this season compared to the visitors’ 8. In the last 5 matches Turan averaged 1.6 points per game (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) and scored 6 goals, while Sumqayıt averaged 0.2 points per game (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), scoring 3 and conceding 10. At home Turan average 1.42 goals scored, 0.92 goals conceded and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, whereas away Sumqayıt score 1.00 and concede 1.23 with only 23% of matches without conceding. Turan generate higher xG at home (1.38 vs 1.22), record more shots on target (4.42 vs 3.85) and achieve a higher shot conversion rate (13% vs 11%), while Sumqayıt have a higher share of matches without scoring (31% vs 17%). Considering the points advantage (1.6 vs 0.2), superior xG, greater number of shots on target and higher clean sheet rate (50% vs 23%), I assess the hosts have a clear edge.

I assess a BTTS advantage because in the last 5 matches both Turan and Sumqayıt recorded BTTS in 60% (3 of 5), signaling clear form. This season Turan has 54% of home matches with both teams scoring, while Sumqayıt has 46% on the road, versus a league average of 45%, so seasonal rates also slightly favor BTTS. Sumqayıt conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per game) and has 39 conceded this season, while scoring only 3 goals in the last 5 (0.6 per game), which weakens confidence in their scoring. Turan’s season xG is 1.32 and xG in the last 5 is 1.4, whereas Sumqayıt’s season xG is 1.22 and 0.93 in the last 5, indicating the home side creates more quality chances and is more likely to score. Considering the above (recent BTTS 60% both, seasonal 54% vs 46%, goal distribution in last 5: Turan 6 scored/6 conceded, Sumqayıt 3 scored/10 conceded), I tip BTTS - Yes 62% vs No 38%.

I model expected goals based on xG: Turan has xG_for 1.32 and Sumqayıt xG_against 1.32, yielding 1.32 expected goals for the home side; similarly the away side comes out at 1.32, totaling 2.64 expected goals. This is very close to the league average of 2.61 and aligns with high seasonal Over 1.5 rates: Turan 77% and Sumqayıt 69%, hence the modelled probability for Over 1.5 is approximately 74%. Signals for the 2.5 line are weaker — seasonally Turan has Over 2.5 at 62% versus Sumqayıt 38%, and the model gives about a 49% chance of >=3 goals, i.e. no clear edge. The 3.5 line is less likely: seasonal Over 3.5 is 46% (Turan) and 15% (Sumqayıt), while the model predicts roughly a 27% chance of 4+ goals, so Under 3.5 has the edge. Additionally BTTS (54% home, 46% away) and recent 5-match form (Turan 6 scored and 6 conceded; Sumqayıt 3 scored and 10 conceded) reinforce Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

At half-time the score is most often level: Turan were level at the break in 54% of matches, and Sumqayıt in 46%, which strongly supports a draw at HT. At the same time Turan have clearly better form over the last five matches — averaging 1.6 points per game versus 0.2 for Sumqayıt and scoring more goals (1.2 vs 0.6), so they have the conditions to turn the result after the break. The home side also have a higher average goals before the break (0.54 vs 0.23), higher xG 1.32 versus 1.22 and better shot conversion 14% vs 11%, which increases the chance that they will find a goal after the interval. Additionally, in second halves Turan record over 0.5 goals in 85% of matches and over 1.5 in 69%, while Sumqayıt have 62% and 46% respectively, hence the half-time draw and home win (X/1) scenario appears most justified.