Tychy 71 vs Znicz Pruszków: match statistics

Across the season Tychy 71 have scored 31 goals versus Znicz Pruszków’s 28, and at home the hosts display a stronger attack — averaging 1.54 goals with an xG of 1.65 and 5.31 shots on target per match, while Znicz away manage only 0.77 goals, xG 1.47 and 3.46 shots on target. The difference in efficiency is visible: the hosts’ shot conversion is 11% versus the visitors’ 7%, and Tychy failed to score in only 15% of home matches, while Znicz were goalless in 46% of their away games. However, Tychy’s defense is weaker — they concede 2.23 goals at home on average and have let in 12 goals in the last 5 matches, whereas Znicz concede 1.46 goals away and have conceded 8 in their last 5, which limits the home advantage. Both teams are in poor form (Tychy 0.2 points per game in the last 5, Znicz 0.4 points per game) and neither has won in their last five fixtures, so I expect a tense, balanced game. Considering the clear offensive edge for the hosts and Znicz’s high share of goalless away matches (46%), I tip a Tychy victory, although the risk of a draw remains significant due to the hosts’ weak defense.

Data analysis points to a higher probability of a Both Teams To Score scenario: the league BTTS rate is 67%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have a 60% BTTS occurrence. Seasonally Tychy has BTTS 54% and Znicz 46%, slightly below the league average, but the recent 5-match trend (60% for both) and the high league average of 67% increase the likelihood of goals from both sides. Tychy concedes 2.54 goals per match on the season and 12 goals in the last 5 fixtures (2.4 per match), while Znicz concedes 1.46 seasonally — with both teams only having a 15% chance of a clean sheet, the defenses look prone to conceding. Offensively the hosts generate 13.31 shots and 4.23 on target with xG 1.57 and a 10% conversion rate, whereas Znicz has 11.77 shots, 3.46 on target and xG 1.47; this suggests the hosts will create chances and the visitors have sufficient xG and 5 goals in the last 5 matches to respond. Given these figures I assign a 68% probability to BTTS - Yes and 32% to No, therefore the recommendation is Yes.

I base the forecast on xG: Tychy have 1.57 xG, Znicz 1.47 xG, totaling 3.04 expected goals in the match. Seasonally Tychy record Over 1.5 in 85% of games, Znicz in 69%, and the league average goals is 2.99 — these figures strongly support Over 1.5 (I estimate 88%). Tychy average 13.31 shots and 4.23 on target per game with a conversion rate of 10%, Znicz have 11.77 shots and 3.46 on target with a 7% conversion, so both chance creation and finishing also favor more goals. Signals for the 2.5 line are moderate: Tychy have Over 2.5 in 69% of matches, Znicz in 38%, which together with xG 3.04 and the league’s 61% Over 2.5 yields an estimated 62% for Over 2.5. The 3.5 line is weakest (Tychy 54% vs Znicz 15% Over 3.5), therefore the best choice is Over 1.5.

I back X/2 (draw at half-time, away win after 90 minutes) as the most likely scenario. In the last five matches Znicz were level at the break in 60% of games and averaged 1.2 half-time points compared to Tychy’s 0.2 (60% vs 20%, last5_HTPPG: 1.2 vs 0.2). The home side have averaged 0.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded by half-time in their last five, while the visitors averaged 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded at the break (0.2/1.8 vs 0.6/0.6), which increases the probability of a draw at 45 minutes and a turnaround after the interval. Over the season Tychy concede 2.54 goals per game versus 1.46 conceded by Znicz, with similar xG (1.57 for Tychy vs 1.47 for Znicz), so the away side’s defensive edge and the home side’s poorer form favor a Znicz win after 90 minutes. For these reasons I assign highest weight to X/2 with lower probabilities for X/X and 2/2 as alternatives.