Ulm vs MSV Duisburg: match statistics
As the league leaders, MSV Duisburg are showing significantly better form and efficiency than 19th-placed Ulm. The hosts have only a 30% win rate at home with a 70% loss rate, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per home match. MSV Duisburg maintain a solid defense in away matches with 55% clean sheets and an average of just 1.18 goals conceded, alongside a 36% away win rate. The form over the last five matches also favors the visitors (1.6 points per game vs 1.2 for Ulm). The difference in goal balance (+6 for MSV away vs -7 for Ulm at home) and the visitors' higher shot conversion rate (15% vs 13%) further support the advantage of the team from Duisburg. Considering all statistics, MSV Duisburg have a realistic chance of winning, although their solid draw form away (36% draws on the road) does not rule out a share of the points.
Ulm vs MSV Duisburg: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Ulm played against MSV Duisburg in 3. Liga (Germany). The game was played on February 1, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Ulm has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. MSV Duisburg has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Ulm scores 1.38 goals per game and allows 2.14. MSV Duisburg scores 1.81 and allows 1.05. Games in this league average 3.14 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 67% of Ulm's games and 62% of MSV Duisburg's. The Over 2.5 rates are 76% and 67%, compared with league averages of 63% for BTTS and 64% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
MSV Duisburg has the higher season xG average, 1.57 to 1.36 per game. Ulm takes 11.2 shots per game, while MSV Duisburg takes 12.6.
First-half and second-half trends
Ulm leads at halftime in 14% of its games and scores 0.86 goals per game after halftime. MSV Duisburg leads at halftime in 33% and scores 1.14 after halftime.
When the teams score
Ulm's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (8 goals). For MSV Duisburg, it is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
3. Liga games average 3.14 goals. Both teams score in 63% of games, and 64% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
As the league leaders, MSV Duisburg are showing significantly better form and efficiency than 19th-placed Ulm. The hosts have only a 30% win rate at home with a 70% loss rate, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per home match. MSV Duisburg maintain a solid defense in away matches with 55% clean sheets and an average of just 1.18 goals conceded, alongside a 36% away win rate. The form over the last five matches also favors the visitors (1.6 points per game vs 1.2 for Ulm). The difference in goal balance (+6 for MSV away vs -7 for Ulm at home) and the visitors' higher shot conversion rate (15% vs 13%) further support the advantage of the team from Duisburg. Considering all statistics, MSV Duisburg have a realistic chance of winning, although their solid draw form away (36% draws on the road) does not rule out a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Ulm | MSV Duisburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
MSV Duisburg is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Ulm · 1.6 pts / game - MSV Duisburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
MSV Duisburg is 31% better for: goals scored per game.
1.38 goals / game - Ulm · 1.81 goals / game - MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg is 104% better for: goals allowed per game.
2.14 goals / game - Ulm · 1.05 goals / game - MSV Duisburg
Ulm scores in 81% of games (17 of 21 meczów), while MSV Duisburg keeps a clean sheet in 38% (8 of 21 meczów).
MSV Duisburg scores in 81% of games (17 of 21 meczów), while Ulm keeps a clean sheet in 14% (3 of 21 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ulm
Over / Under - MSV Duisburg
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
MSV Duisburg is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.76 pts / game - Ulm · 1.52 pts / game - MSV Duisburg
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ulm - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 14% of games and wins 29%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
MSV Duisburg - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 52%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Ulm
MSV Duisburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Ulm | Liga | MSV Duisburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.52 | 3.14 | ▼ 2.86 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 63% | • 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 76% | 64% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 22% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 76% | ▼ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 83% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Ulm's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against MSV Duisburg. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Ulm vs MSV Duisburg?
The 3. Liga match finished Ulm 1:0 MSV Duisburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ulm vs MSV Duisburg?
Ulm score 1.38 goals per game on average and MSV Duisburg 1.81. The 3. Liga average is 3.14 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Ulm's matches and 62% of MSV Duisburg's.
What form are Ulm and MSV Duisburg in?
Over the last 5 games Ulm have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and MSV Duisburg 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ulm vs MSV Duisburg?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ulm vs MSV Duisburg: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.