Ulm vs Rot-Weiss Essen: match statistics

Rot-Weiss Essen is the favorite for this match: they sit 4th with 19 wins this season versus Ulm’s 9 wins and 18th position. Offensively the visitors are clearly stronger — averaging 2.00 goals away and xG 1.75 versus the hosts’ 1.22 goals and xG 1.44, with 15.06 shots and 5.39 on target per game compared to Ulm’s 11.39 and 4.22. Rot-Weiss’s shot conversion is 13% versus Ulm’s 11%, and the hosts suffer 61% losses in home matches compared to only 28% away losses for the visitors, increasing the risk of defeat for Ulm. Both teams are, however, defensively vulnerable — Ulm concedes 1.89 goals at home and has shipped 12 goals in the last 5 matches, while Essen concedes 2.33 away and 14 goals in the last 5, which points to a high likelihood of goals. Combined with recent form over the last 5 matches (Ulm 0.8 points and 1 win, Essen 1.2 points and 2 wins) I predict an away victory.

Strong BTTS signal: Ulm has a season BTTS rate of 74% and Rot-Weiss Essen 89%, averaging 81.5%, which clearly exceeds the league BTTS average of 64%. In the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS at 80%, and over that period Ulm averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, while Essen scored 2.0 and conceded 2.8, indicating vulnerabilities in both defenses. Seasonal averages also show Ulm scores 2.05 goals per game and concedes 1.16, while Essen scores 2.00 and concedes 2.33; attacking xG is 1.83 versus 1.75, and xG conceded 1.57 versus 1.51, confirming chance creation and concession. Additionally, clean sheet rates are low: 26% for Ulm and 6% for Essen, and shot volumes (16.0 vs 15.06) and shots on target (5.79 vs 5.39) plus high percentages of matches over 2.5 goals (58% and 78%) increase the likelihood both teams will score. Recommendation: BTTS - Yes with a probability split of 85% vs 15% for No.

Based on xG: Ulm has xG_for 1.83 versus Rot‑Weiss Essen xG_against 1.51, implying an expected ≈1.67 goals for the home side; Essen has xG_for 1.75 versus Ulm xG_against 1.57, implying ≈1.66 for the away side, total ≈3.33 goals. Season figures confirm an offensive profile for both teams: Ulm scores 2.05 and concedes 1.16 per match, Essen scores 2.00 and concedes 2.33; Over1.5 occurs in 79% of Ulm’s matches and 94% of Essen’s. In the last 5 games Ulm scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) and conceded 12 (2.4), Essen scored 10 (2.0) and conceded 14 (2.8), indicating elevated goal involvement. Both teams show high BTTS rates: 74% (Ulm) and 89% (Essen), and the league averages 3.17 goals per match. A Poisson model with lambda=3.33 yields roughly an 85% probability of Over1.5, ~65% for Over2.5 and ~43% for Over3.5, so the strongest signal is Over1.5.

Ulm led at the break in 53% of matches (10 times) and scores an average of 1.11 goals by half-time versus 0.61 for Rot‑Weiss Essen, giving the home side a clear advantage in the first 45 minutes. Over the whole season Ulm has a 63% win rate in home matches and averages 2.11 points per game, while Essen records 39% wins and 1.5 points, meaning the hosts are stronger over the full 90 minutes. After the break Ulm concedes only 0.58 goals on average, while Essen concedes 1.56 goals in the second half, so with a lead at the break Ulm is more likely to maintain it; both teams however frequently score (BTTS 74% Ulm, 89% Essen). On this basis I select the 1/1 scenario (Ulm leads at half-time and wins) with a probability of 39%, while a draw/draw is assessed at 13% and Ulm dropping to a draw (1/X) at 8%. Essen overturning to win (1/2) is estimated at 5%, Ulm coming back from behind to win (2/1) at 4%, and the away side holding their lead (2/2) at 8% due to weaker points averages and higher second-half goals conceded by the visitors.