Ulm vs Verl: match statistics
Ulm vs Verl: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Ulm played against Verl in 3. Liga (Germany). The game was played on April 5, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Ulm has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.40 points per game. Verl has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Ulm scores 1.30 goals per game and allows 2.07. Verl scores 2.33 and allows 1.37. Games in this league average 3.15 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 73% of Ulm's games and 73% of Verl's. The Over 2.5 rates are 70% and 80%, compared with league averages of 64% for BTTS and 64% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Verl has the higher season xG average, 1.82 to 1.42 per game. Ulm takes 11.8 shots per game, while Verl takes 15.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Ulm leads at halftime in 17% of its games and scores 0.80 goals per game after halftime. Verl leads at halftime in 43% and scores 1.33 after halftime.
When the teams score
Ulm's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (10 goals). For Verl, it is minutes 76-90+ (17 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
3. Liga games average 3.15 goals. Both teams score in 64% of games, and 64% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Verl is the paper favorite: the visitors average 2.00 goals per away match (70 this season) versus Ulm’s 1.27 at home (39 this season), and in the last 5 games Verl has scored 10 and conceded only 3 while Ulm has 7 scored and 10 conceded. The quality gap is also evident in possession and shots: Verl averages 65% possession and 5.4 shots on target per away game, Ulm 52% possession and 4.13 shots on target at home. Defensively Ulm concedes 2.07 goals per home match, Verl 1.67 away, and xG also favors the visitors (xG 1.71 for Verl vs 1.43 for Ulm). Efficiency further supports the visitors: Verl’s conversion rate is 14% versus Ulm’s 11%, and Ulm fail to score in 20% of home games compared to Verl’s 13% scoreless away matches. Ulm have only a 27% home-win rate and a -12 home goal differential, while Verl have a 40% away-win rate and a +5 differential, so I predict an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Ulm 67% and Verl 80%, while the league average is 64%, indicating a bias towards BTTS - Yes. Ulm at home scores 2.67 goals on average (xG 1.92) and records 6.33 shots on target, while Verl away averages 2.0 goals (xG 1.71) with 5.4 shots on target — both sides generate clear chances. In the last 5 matches Ulm has BTTS 100% and concedes 2.0 goals per game on average (10 conceded), whereas Verl has BTTS 40% but scores 2.0 and concedes only 0.6 (3 conceded) — this lowers confidence but does not negate the seasonal trends. Ulm has 33% clean sheets and Verl 13%, and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 87% of Ulm’s games and 73% of Verl’s, which further favors Goal/Goal outcomes. Considering the offensive edge (xG 1.92 vs 1.71), seasonal BTTS 67%/80% and Ulm’s recent 100% BTTS, I assess BTTS probability at 72% and select 'BTTS - Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model (xG for Ulm 1.92 and xG against Verl 1.26; xG for Verl 1.71 and xG against Ulm 1.19) yields expected goals: Ulm 1.59 and Verl 1.45, total 3.04. Seasonally, Over 1.5 occurred in 93% of matches for both teams, Over 2.5 in 87% of Ulm’s matches and 73% of Verl’s matches (average 80%), and Over 3.5 in 60% vs 53% (average ~57%), confirming a propensity for high-scoring games. Additionally, BTTS is 67% for Ulm and 80% for Verl, and in the last 5 matches both teams produced Over 2.5 in 80% of cases (Ulm scored 7 and conceded 10 in those 5; Verl scored 10 and conceded 3), which increases the likelihood of multiple goals. Considering the expected 3.04 goals, the high seasonal 80% for Over 2.5 and frequent mutual scoring, the strongest signal from the data is Over 2.5. There is risk since Ulm concedes on average 1.07 at home and has weaker form in the last five matches, but the numbers (xG, high Over and BTTS rates) clearly support betting Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1 (Ulm leading at half and winning) because Ulm led at the break in 8 home matches (53% of their home games), averaging 1.07 goals at half and conceding only 0.33. Verl led at half in 5 away matches (33%), averaging 0.93 first-half goals and 0.80 conceded, while Ulm posts higher home xG: 1.92 versus Verl’s 1.71. Ulm wins 60% of home fixtures and accumulates 2.07 points per home match, keeps a clean sheet at half in 80% of home games, and registers more shots (16.27 vs 14.13) and more on target (6.33 vs 5.4), all factors that support converting a lead at the break into a full-time victory. There is a risk of a turnaround given Verl’s recent form (60% wins in the last 5 matches versus Ulm’s 20%) and their activity in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals vs Ulm’s 6), so I have assigned moderate probabilities to draw and turnaround scenarios. Therefore I gave the highest probability to 1/1 (37%), with 11% for 1/X and 13% for X/1 as the main alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Ulm | Verl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Verl is 400% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / game - Ulm · 2 pts / game - Verl
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Verl is 79% better for: goals scored per game.
1.3 goals / game - Ulm · 2.33 goals / game - Verl
Verl is 51% better for: goals allowed per game.
2.07 goals / game - Ulm · 1.37 goals / game - Verl
Ulm scores in 87% of games (26 of 30 meczów), while Verl keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 30 meczów).
Verl scores in 90% of games (27 of 30 meczów), while Ulm keeps a clean sheet in 13% (4 of 30 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ulm
Over / Under - Verl
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Verl is 92% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.87 pts / game - Ulm · 1.67 pts / game - Verl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ulm - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 17% of games and wins 23%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Verl - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 43% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Ulm
Verl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Ulm | Liga | Verl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.37 | 3.15 | ▲ 3.70 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 73% | 64% | ▲ 73% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 70% | 64% | ▲ 80% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 21% | ▲ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 76% | • 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 83% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Ulm's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Verl. Games average 5.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Ulm vs Verl?
The 3. Liga match finished Ulm 1:0 Verl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ulm vs Verl?
Ulm score 1.30 goals per game on average and Verl 2.33. The 3. Liga average is 3.15 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 73% of Ulm's matches and 73% of Verl's.
What form are Ulm and Verl in?
Over the last 5 games Ulm have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Verl 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ulm vs Verl?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.