Ulsan vs Daejeon Citizen: match statistics

Ulsan sit 2nd in the table with 16 scored goals this season, while Daejeon are 10th with 7 goals, which already indicates a superiority of the hosts in ranking and finishing. At home Ulsan average 2.25 goals per game, register 18.25 shots with 6.5 on target and have an average xG of 2.10, whereas Daejeon on the road score 1.25 goals with 9.75 shots, 3 on target and xG 1.25. Defensively Daejeon are solid away, conceding only 0.75 goals per game despite an average xG against of 1.47, while Ulsan at home concede 1.5 goals and have xG against 1.43. In the last 5 matches Ulsan average 1.4 points with form L W L W D, and Daejeon only 0.6 points with a poor run L L L W L and a single win, which favors the hosts. Considering Ulsan’s clear advantage in chance creation (18.25 vs 9.75), higher expected effectiveness (xG 2.10 vs 1.25) and higher home goal average (2.25 vs 1.25), I expect a home win.

Ulsan has BTTS in 80% of its last 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, while Daejeon has 0% BTTS in its last 5 and averages only 0.2 goals per match. Season averages show Ulsan at home scores just 0.4 goals per game with xG 1.45 and a low shot conversion of 4%, whereas Daejeon away averages 1.25 goals per game with a higher conversion of 13%. Ulsan has no clean sheets at home (0% clean sheets), so it typically concedes, but in-form Daejeon (last 5) cannot score (0.2 G per game), which is a strong signal against BTTS. Additionally, league-wide BTTS occurs in 54% of matches, indicating a moderate tendency toward both teams scoring, but the discrepancy between recent forms (Ulsan 80% BTTS vs Daejeon 0%) and Ulsan’s low seasonal efficiency suggest at least one side may be kept out. As a result I give greater weight to Daejeon’s lack of goals and tip 'No' with a 62% probability versus 38% for 'Yes'.

Ulsan has a season offensive xG of 1.45 and in the last 5 matches an xG of 1.90 with an average of 1.8 goals (9 goals in 5), while Daejeon has a season xG of 1.25 and in the last 5 matches an xG of 1.11 with only 1 goal in those five games (0.2 average). Based on this I estimate expected goals of ~1.60 for Ulsan and ~0.80 for Daejeon (total ~2.40). A Poisson model for a 2.40 total yields roughly a 69% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 43% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 22% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Season-long figures suggest caution (Ulsan 0% of matches over 2.5 this season, Daejeon 25%), but in their last 5 matches Ulsan had 60% of games over 2.5 and in 80% of cases both teams scored, which increases the chance of at least two goals. Therefore the best line to play is Over 1.5 — it has the highest probability (~69%) and is supported by the home side’s attacking form despite unfavorable season stats.

Ulsan led at the break in 0% of the season’s matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home 0.0) and were trailing at half-time in 80% of games (trailingAtHTPercentage_home 80.0), with average goals at half-time 0.0 and an average deficit of 0.8 (scoredAVGHT_home 0.0, concededAVGHT_home 0.8). Daejeon away have a 50% win rate on the season (winPercentage_away 50.0), score an average of 1.25 goals per match (seasonScoredAVG_away 1.25) with xG 1.25 and a shot conversion rate of 13% (xg_for_avg_away 1.25, shot_conversion_rate_away 13.0), while the home side convert only 4% of shots (shot_conversion_rate_home 4.0). At the half level the visitors average 0.5 goals at HT versus Ulsan’s 0.0 (scoredAVGHT_away 0.5 vs scoredAVGHT_home 0.0), so the most likely half-time score is the visitors leading 0-1. Considering full-match numbers (Ulsan score 0.4 at home and concede 1.2, seasonScoredAVG_home 0.4 vs seasonConcededAVG_home 1.2; Daejeon score 1.25 and concede 0.75), and that the home team have 0% wins this season while the visitors have 50%, the strongest signal is 2/2. Therefore I assess 2/2 at 57%, the second option is X/2 (draw at half-time and away win) at 18%, and 2/X (visitors leading at HT and full-time draw) at 10%; home-win scenarios are marginal (total 2%).