Unia Swarzędz vs Cartusia Kartuzy: match statistics

Unia Swarzędz has a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they generate 1.71 xG on average, take 14.55 shots and record 57% possession, while Cartusia away posts 1.35 xG, 10.88 shots and 48% possession. Defensively the hosts also perform better – Unia concedes 1.23 goals at home on average, whereas Cartusia concedes 1.69 goals away, and the goal difference at home is -5 versus -7 for the visitors. Recent form over the last 5 matches favors Unia: the hosts scored 7 goals and registered 3 wins (1.8 points per game), while Cartusia scored 4 goals, recorded no wins and averages only 0.4 points per game. The risk for Unia is a high share of home matches without scoring (62%), while Cartusia is more efficient with shots (conversion 11% vs 7% for Unia), so the visitors could capitalise on limited opportunities. Considering the superior home xG (1.71 vs 1.35), more solid home defense and clearly better form in the last five matches, I give Unia the higher probability of victory.

I estimate BTTS - Yes at 44% and No Goal at 56%, therefore I recommend the No BTTS pick. Cartusia Kartuzy failed to score in 46% of matches this season and has a seasonal goals average of 1.15 (in the last 5 matches only 0.8, i.e. 4 goals), which greatly limits the likelihood of both teams scoring. Unia Swarzędz scores at home on average 1.62 goals per match (xG 1.53) and has a seasonal BTTS rate of 62%, but in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.4 goals and conceded 0.8 (7 scored and 4 conceded), and their last 5 fixtures had BTTS in only 20%, indicating an improved defense. Additionally, Cartusia averages 4.5 shots on target with a conversion rate of 11%, while Unia has 5.8 shots on target and 12% conversion, and xG against are 1.6 (against Unia) and 1.73 (against Cartusia), which suggests Unia will dominate offensively while Cartusia may struggle with finishing. As a result, the weight of signals — Cartusia’s no-goal rate (46% of matches without scoring) and Unia’s good defensive form in the last 5 matches (0.8 goals conceded) — is decisive, hence the No BTTS selection.

The model projects approximately 3.11 total expected goals (Unia 1.63 xG vs Cartusia 1.48 xG), which roughly translates to ~82% probability for Over 1.5 goals and ~60% for Over 2.5 goals. Unia has an attacking xG of 1.53 and scores on average 1.62 goals per match, Cartusia has an attacking xG of 1.35 and scores 1.15 goals; Cartusia concedes 1.73 xG and 1.69 goals against, while Unia concedes 1.60 xG against and 1.23 goals conceded, all favoring a higher-scoring game. Unia records 5.8 shots on target versus Cartusia’s 4.5 and has a conversion rate of 12% versus 11%, and both teams have 54% of their matches Over 2.5 goals this season (league average 2.95 g/match). In the last 5 matches Unia scored 7 goals (1.4 avg.) and conceded 4 (0.8), Cartusia scored 4 (0.8) and conceded 9 (1.8), further strengthening the goal prospects for this fixture. Therefore my strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Unia Swarzędz are the favorites: seasonally they score an average of 1.62 goals per match versus Cartusia’s 1.15, possess a higher xG (1.53 vs 1.35) and register more shots on target (5.8 vs 4.5), which gives them better chances to take the lead and control the game. At half-time the statistics also favor Unia — the home side averages 0.64 goals by the break, the visitors 0.42, and Cartusia concedes an average of 1.17 goals in the first half; in the last five matches Unia led after 45 minutes in 67% of games, while Cartusia did so in none (0%). In the second half Unia posts superior metrics: average goals in second halves are 1.45 for the home side versus 1.25 for the visitors, and Unia itself scores on average 0.91 goals in second halves versus 0.75 for Cartusia; additionally the average points gained in second halves are 1.82 versus 1.50. Cartusia struggle in the first half and with overall form — they were trailing at the break in 58% of matches and have not won in their last five fixtures (0% wins), which limits their chances of a turnaround. Therefore the strongest signal is Unia leading at the break and winning at full-time: I assign the 1/1 scenario a 44% probability, the second most likely is X/1 at 18%, and draws or Cartusia victories are assessed as less probable.