Unia Swarzędz vs Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal: match statistics

Unia Swarzędz holds a clear advantage in form and results: in the last 5 matches they recorded 3 wins and 2 draws (3-2-0) and average 2.2 points per match, whereas Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses and only 0.2 points per match. Offensively Unia scored 9 goals in the last 5 fixtures versus the visitors’ 4, and across the season they have 41 goals for compared to 18 for the opponents. Defensively the visitors perform markedly worse: Rewal concedes 2.69 goals on average away and has 77 goals conceded this season, while Unia concedes 1.13 at home and has 36 conceded; in the last 5 matches the difference is 3 goals conceded by Unia versus 17 by the visitors. Additionally Unia creates more chances (on average 13.86 shots and 4.86 on target at home vs 6.8 and 2.6 for the visitors) and has a higher home xG (1.64) with the visitors’ away xG at 0.9, therefore I back a home win.

I pick the 'No' scenario (Both Teams To Score - No) with a 65% probability vs 35% for 'Yes'. In the last 5 matches Unia averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (9 scored, 3 conceded), while Wybrzeże had 0.8 goals and 3.4 conceded (4–17), indicating a large disparity in form. Season BTTS rates are low for both sides: Unia 44% and Wybrzeże 38% (avg ~41%), below the league average of 52%, so both teams less frequently produce Goal/Goal outcomes. Additionally, Wybrzeże has scored only 18 and conceded 77 this season, and despite a higher shot conversion (9% vs 3%) they produce a similar number of shots (6.8) and fewer on target (2.6 vs 3.0), meaning they realistically generate few clear chances to breach Unia’s defense. In summary, Unia’s superior recent form (form 'ddwww' vs 'dllll') and the 3 vs 17 goals conceded in the last 5 matches suggest a higher probability of No Goal/Goal (clean sheet expected or at least one team kept out).

The 1.5 line is the strongest signal: season-long Over1.5 rates are 75% for Unia and 81% for Rewal, yielding an average ~78% probability of at least 2 goals. In the last 5 matches Unia scored 9 goals (1.8 avg) and conceded 3 (0.6), while Rewal scored 4 (0.8) and conceded 17 (3.4), increasing the likelihood of multiple goals. An xG-based model gives ~1.32 expected goals for the home side (xG_for 0.97 vs opponents' xG_against 1.67) and ~1.27 for the away side (xG_for 0.9 vs xG_against 1.64), totaling ~2.59 expected goals. Season-long Over2.5 is 38%/56% and last 5 matches 60%/80%, translating to a moderate 59% for Over2.5, while Over3.5 remains less likely (~34%) despite the visitors' weak defense.

Unia Swarzędz is clearly in better form: over the last 5 matches they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, winning 3 of 5 (60%), whereas Wybrzeże average 0.8 scored and 3.4 conceded with 0 wins (0%). The advantage for Unia is most evident at half-time – the home side led at the break in 3 of their last 5 fixtures (60%) and in those five did not concede at half-time (average 0.0), while the visitors concede an average of 1.8 goals by half-time over their last 5. Unia also has slightly higher xG (0.97 vs 0.90), more shots on target (3.0 vs 2.6) and a seasonally better defense (Unia concedes 2.13 goals per match vs 2.69 for Wybrzeże), which supports maintaining a lead. Given these figures, the most likely scenario is Unia leading at half-time and the hosts winning the match, so the primary pick is HT/FT 1/1 (45%), with alternatives X/1 (20%) and X/X (12%).