Union Brescia vs Treviso: match statistics

Union Brescia have won every home match so far, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 0.5 per game, while Treviso remain without an away victory. The hosts are also in significantly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 10 goals during that run, whereas Treviso have suffered 3 defeats over the same period, scoring only 3 goals in total. Brescia’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with their average home xG standing at 1.87 compared with Treviso’s 1.54 away from home, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.53. The hosts average 5.5 shots on target per match and convert 17% of their attempts, whereas Treviso manage just 2.5 shots on target with a 7% conversion rate. The visitors’ defense remains vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.5 goals away from home and keeping no clean sheets, making a Union Brescia victory the most likely outcome.

The “No” selection has a slight edge, as Treviso have scored just 0.6 goals per match over their last 5 games and lost 3 of their last 5 outings. Union Brescia are in excellent form, with four consecutive wins, averaging 2.0 goals across their last 5 matches, while keeping a clean sheet in 100% of their home fixtures this season. The hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.39, but their effective defense has so far conceded just 1 goal, while Treviso manage only 2.5 shots on target per match. Both teams have recorded Goal/Goal in 40% of their matches over the last five rounds, compared with a league BTTS average of 47%, so the data does not point to a strong away-goal scenario. A more likely outcome is that Brescia exploit Treviso’s weak defense, which concedes an average of 1.5 goals, while at least one team fails to score. In other words, BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Union Brescia are in excellent form, averaging 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Treviso have managed just 0.6 goals per game over the same period. The hosts have recently conceded an average of 1.0 goal and have kept clean sheets in all of their home matches to date, limiting the visitors’ attacking potential. Treviso average only 2.5 shots on target and convert 7% of their attempts, despite an average xG of 1.54, meaning their actual finishing remains below the quality of the chances they create. Both teams have recorded 100% of their matches below 3.5 goals so far, while the league average of 2.0 goals further supports a low-scoring scenario. The projected total of 2.32 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals market.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is Union Brescia leading at the break and winning the match, as the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 games, while Treviso have suffered 3 defeats over the same period. Brescia took the lead before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals in the first half, whereas Treviso have not led at the break in any of them and averaged just 0.2 goals. In their last five appearances, the hosts averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, while the visitors scored 0.6 and conceded 1.2. Furthermore, Treviso failed to score before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, clearly strengthening Brescia’s chances of controlling the game from the outset and maintaining their lead until full-time.