UPDF vs Mbarara City: match statistics
UPDF vs Mbarara City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
UPDF play Mbarara City in Uganda Premier League (Uganda). The match date is 9 April 2026 at 15:00. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
UPDF: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Mbarara City: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
UPDF scores 0.80 and concedes 1.37 goals per match. Mbarara City scores 0.87 and concedes 1.57. League average: 2.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: UPDF 40%, Mbarara City 57%. Over 2.5: UPDF 40%, Mbarara City 40%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
UPDF has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.31. UPDF: 10.8 shots per match, Mbarara City: 8.2.
Match halves
UPDF: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.43. Mbarara City: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.47.
Goals by minute
UPDF: 31-45+ (6 goals). Mbarara City: 61-75 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uganda Premier League: 2.09 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I forecast a home win: UPDF have a superior home defense — conceding 1.0 goal per home match versus Mbarara’s 2.0 on the road. The hosts also create more chances and higher xG at home (1.63 xG and 12.3 shots per match) compared to the visitors (1.37 xG and 11.1 shots). UPDF’s issue is efficiency — only 0.6 goals at home and a 5% conversion rate, with 50% of home games goalless, while Mbarara average 0.82 goals away and a 7% conversion, so the game could be low-scoring. Neither side has won in the last 5 matches (0 wins), but UPDF scored 2 and conceded 5 in that period, while Mbarara scored 1 and conceded 6, giving a slight edge to the hosts. Considering possession 53% vs 45%, UPDF’s better home goal difference (-4) versus Mbarara’s very poor away goal difference (-13) and the xG advantage, I assess higher probability of a home victory.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| UPDF | Mbarara City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mbarara City is 800% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - UPDF · 1.8 pts / match - Mbarara City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mbarara City is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
0.8 goals / match - UPDF · 0.87 goals / match - Mbarara City
UPDF is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.37 goals / match - UPDF · 1.57 goals / match - Mbarara City
UPDF scores in 50% of matches (15 of 30 matches), while Mbarara City keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).
Mbarara City scores in 70% of matches (21 of 30 matches), while UPDF keeps a clean sheet in 27% (8 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — UPDF
Over / Under — Mbarara City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mbarara City is 7% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.87 pts / match - UPDF · 0.93 pts / match - Mbarara City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
UPDF - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mbarara City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
UPDF
Mbarara City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uganda Premier League).
Teams vs league
| UPDF | Liga | Mbarara City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.17 | 2.09 | ▲ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 40% | 38% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 40% | 35% | ▲ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 27% | 39% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | • 60% | 59% | • 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 67% | 62% | ▲ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: UPDF 1 - 0 - 0 Mbarara City. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of UPDF vs Mbarara City?
The Uganda Premier League match finished UPDF 3:1 Mbarara City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before UPDF vs Mbarara City?
UPDF score 0.80 goals per game on average and Mbarara City 0.87. The Uganda Premier League average is 2.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 40% of UPDF's matches and 57% of Mbarara City's.
What form are UPDF and Mbarara City in?
Over the last 5 games UPDF have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Mbarara City 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for UPDF vs Mbarara City?
The statistical background for UPDF vs Mbarara City — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.