USM Alger vs Paradou AC: match statistics
USM Alger vs Paradou AC: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
USM Alger played against Paradou AC in Ligue 1 (Algeria). The game was played on May 22, 2026. Final score: 4:2.
Recent form
USM Alger has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Paradou AC has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
USM Alger scores 1.00 goals per game and allows 0.79. Paradou AC scores 1.18 and allows 1.71. Games in this league average 2.23 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of USM Alger's games and 50% of Paradou AC's. The Over 2.5 rates are 25% and 50%, compared with league averages of 48% for BTTS and 38% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
USM Alger has the higher season xG average, 1.66 to 1.11 per game. USM Alger takes 10.8 shots per game, while Paradou AC takes 7.4.
First-half and second-half trends
USM Alger leads at halftime in 29% of its games and scores 0.42 goals per game after halftime. Paradou AC leads at halftime in 25% and scores 0.64 after halftime.
When the teams score
USM Alger's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (5 goals). For Paradou AC, it is minutes 0-15 (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ligue 1 games average 2.23 goals. Both teams score in 48% of games, and 38% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match favorite is USM Alger (home win), primarily due to defensive superiority and game control: the hosts concede only 0.69 goals per home match on average, while Paradou concede 1.93 on the road. USM also posts significantly better chance-quality metrics – average xG for the hosts at home is 1.87 versus Paradou's 1.01 xG away, and the hosts average 13.15 shots (6.54 on target) compared to 6.86 (3.36 on target) for the visitors. Paradou have scored more goals this season (33 vs 24) and have 8 goals in the last 5 matches versus USM's 5, but that is offset by their poor defense (48 goals conceded this season and only 7% clean sheets away). Additionally, USM have been collecting more points recently (2.0 points per match in the last 5 vs 1.4 for Paradou) and at home suffer only 15% defeats with 46% clean sheets, while Paradou lose 79% of away fixtures. Considering defensive stability and superiority in chance quality, I assess a 60% probability of a home win, 25% for a draw and 15% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Paradou AC has a seasonal BTTS rate of 57% versus 43% for USM Alger, with a league average of 48%, tilting slightly in favor of the Both Teams To Score scenario. USM at home scores 1.29 and concedes 1.50 per match, Paradou away scores 1.07 and concedes 1.93; both teams generate xG above 1.00 (USM 1.22, Paradou 1.01) while allowing xG against of 1.55 and 1.48 respectively, so there are goal-scoring opportunities on both sides. The difference in clean sheet percentages is significant: USM has 36% clean sheets, Paradou only 7%, meaning Paradou rarerly finishes matches without conceding and more often contributes to BTTS. In the last 5 matches BTTS for the home side is 40% and for the away side 60%, and numerically both teams scored 5 (USM) and 8 (Paradou) goals while conceding 3 and 7 in their last 5 games, which further supports the 'both to score' scenario. Summing these data points (seasonal 43%/57%, clean sheets 36%/7%, recent form 40%/60% and xG 1.22/1.01 against 1.55/1.48) yields my assessment of 60% for BTTS - Yes and 40% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: USM has xG_for 1.22, Paradou 1.01, and xG_against 1.55 (USM) and 1.48 (Paradou); averaging these values yields expected xG of 1.35 for the home side and 1.28 for the visitors, totaling 2.63 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.63 gives roughly a 74% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 49% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5), therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Match stats confirm this: USM averages 8.62 shots and 4.46 on target, Paradou 6.86 and 3.36; with a conversion rate of 16% this yields approximately 1.38 and 1.10 goals from shots, consistent with the calculated xG. Season percentages show 71% of matches for both teams finished Over 1.5 (USM 71%, Paradou 71%), while only 43% of home matches and 57% of away matches exceeded 2.5 goals, which explains the lower confidence for Over 2.5 (~49%). Based on xG=1.35 vs 1.28, shot counts and seasonal percentages, I recommend Over 1.5 as the best and least risky line to play.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
USM Alger averages 1.29 goals scored and concedes 1.50 per match this season, while Paradou records 1.07 scored and 1.93 conceded; the home side’s xG is 1.22 versus 1.01 for the visitors, and the hosts average 4.46 shots on target compared to 3.36 for Paradou, indicating an advantage in chance creation. At half-time USM led in 29% of matches this season and in 40% of their last five (2 of 5), whereas Paradou led in only 21% this season and 20% of their last five (1 of 5), so the probability of the hosts holding the lead at the break is higher. Paradou have a 79% loss rate away and average 0.5 points per away match, while USM earn 1.21 points per home match and have a 60% win rate in their last five, which increases the likelihood they will maintain a win through full-time. Additionally, USM keep a clean sheet at half-time in 43% of matches season-to-date and have superior average xG and shots on target; average goals by half are 0.57 for the hosts versus 0.5 for the visitors. Therefore the most realistic scenario is the home side leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| USM Alger | Paradou AC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 50% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Paradou AC is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - USM Alger · 1.4 pts / game - Paradou AC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paradou AC is 18% better for: goals scored per game.
1 goals / game - USM Alger · 1.18 goals / game - Paradou AC
USM Alger is 116% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.79 goals / game - USM Alger · 1.71 goals / game - Paradou AC
USM Alger scores in 71% of games (17 of 24 meczów), while Paradou AC keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 28 meczów).
Paradou AC scores in 68% of games (19 of 28 meczów), while USM Alger keeps a clean sheet in 38% (9 of 24 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - USM Alger
Over / Under - Paradou AC
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
USM Alger is 44% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / game - USM Alger · 0.96 pts / game - Paradou AC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
USM Alger - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 29% of games and wins 29%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Paradou AC - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 25%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
USM Alger
Paradou AC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| USM Alger | Liga | Paradou AC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 1.79 | 2.23 | ▲ 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 38% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 30% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 64% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 71% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from USM Alger's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Paradou AC. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of USM Alger vs Paradou AC?
The Ligue 1 match finished USM Alger 4:2 Paradou AC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before USM Alger vs Paradou AC?
USM Alger score 1.00 goals per game on average and Paradou AC 1.18. The Ligue 1 average is 2.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 50% of USM Alger's matches and 50% of Paradou AC's.
What form are USM Alger and Paradou AC in?
Over the last 5 games USM Alger have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Paradou AC 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for USM Alger vs Paradou AC?
The statistical background for USM Alger vs Paradou AC — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.