UTC Cajamarca vs FC Cajamarca: match statistics

UTC Cajamarca has a clear advantage in chance quality — at home they average 11.67 shots and 4.5 on target per match versus FC Cajamarca’s 7.86 shots and 2.43 on target away, with average xG 1.36 vs 0.88. This translates into efficiency: hosts score 1.33 goals per home match with a conversion rate of 11%, while visitors score only 0.57 goals away, have a 7% conversion rate and as many as 71% of away matches without scoring. Defensively UTC also performs better this season — conceding 1.00 goal at home versus FC’s 1.86 conceded away and posting 33% clean sheets compared to 0% for the opponents. Both teams have poor form over the last 5 matches (UTC 0.4 pts on average and 11 goals conceded, FC 0.8 pts and 8 goals conceded), which suggests an open, goal-filled game but with a home advantage. Considering the higher xG (1.36 vs 0.88), more shots on target (4.5 vs 2.43) and the visitors’ lack of away wins, I predict a home victory; I propose a probability split of 70% for 1, 20% for X and 10% for 2.

I back BTTS - Yes at 70% vs 30% because the data indicate a high likelihood of goals from both sides. The home team has a season BTTS rate of 83% and 80% in the last 5 matches, scoring on average 2.0 goals per match and conceding 1.83, which strongly increases the chance the opponent will also score. The away team has a season BTTS of only 29%, but BTTS has risen to 60% in their last 5 matches; their goals average in the last 5 is 1.2 with 1.6 conceded, so recent form also favors them finding the net. xG shows both sides create chances (xG 1.14 for the home side vs 0.88 for the away side, xG against 1.6–1.7) and the home side averages 3.83 shots on target vs 2.43 for the visitors, with 0% clean sheets for both teams in the season; all of this leads me to select BTTS - Yes.

Calculated expected goals are 2.66 (1.42 for UTC Cajamarca and 1.24 for FC Cajamarca), based on home xG 1.14 vs away xG 0.88 and on xG conceded by opponents (home 1.6, away 1.7). The home side averages 2.0 goals per match versus 0.57 for the away team, averages 10.5 shots (3.83 on target) vs 7.86 (2.43 on target) and has a conversion rate of 19% vs 7%, which increases the likelihood of creating scoring opportunities. Seasonal stats show home matches finish over 1.5 goals in 83% of cases, with Over 2.5 occurring at home in 67% (43% for away); in UTC’s last 5 matches Over 2.5 occurred in 80% of games. A Poisson model for total 2.66 yields ~74% chance for Over 1.5, ~50% for Over 2.5 and ~28% for Over 3.5, so the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 and I recommend that line.

I select the X/1 scenario (draw at half-time, home win at full-time) because the home side averages 2.00 goals per match versus 0.57 for the away team, and their xG is 1.14 compared to 0.88 for the opponents, indicating the home team’s offensive advantage. At half-time the home team averages 0.67 goals while the visitors only 0.14, with the home side keeping a clean sheet in 67% of matches at the break, which increases the probability of a low-scoring first half. The decisive factor is the second half: the home team scores an average of 1.33 goals after the break and registers more than 0.5 goals in the second half in 83% of matches, so I expect the turnaround in their favor after half-time. Additionally, the visitors have 0% wins this season and a shot conversion rate of 7% with an average of 0.57 goals per match, so the draw at half-time and home win at full-time scenario appears to be the strongest signal.