UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario: match statistics

Universitario are in clearly better current form: they have collected 10 points from their last 5 matches, winning 3 times, while UTC Cajamarca have failed to win any match and earned just 2 points. The visitors have scored 9 goals during this period, compared with only 3 for the hosts, while the Cajamarca side have conceded as many as 9 goals. Across the season, Universitario have recorded 12 wins and scored 35 goals, compared with 4 victories and 25 goals for UTC Cajamarca. The hosts’ home advantage is undermined by their high draw rate of 55%, while their attack averages only 1.00 goal per match at home. Although Universitario’s away results also frequently end in draws, the visitors’ shot conversion rate stands at 10% compared with 8% for the hosts, which, given the current trend, points to a narrow victory for Universitario.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive: both teams recorded a “both teams to score” result in 60% of their last five matches, while Universitario has produced this outcome in 64% of its games this season. In their last five league rounds, the visitors averaged 1.8 goals scored, whereas UTC Cajamarca conceded as many as 1.8 goals per match, clearly increasing Universitario’s chances of finding the net. The hosts have shown weaker recent attacking output, scoring just 0.6 goals per match in their last five appearances, but they created chances worth 1.35 xG, while Universitario conceded an average of 1.2 goals during this period. Over the season, the visitors have kept a clean sheet in only 27% of their matches, while UTC averages 16.0 shots and generates 1.67 xG at home. The main risk to the pick is that Universitario have failed to score in 36% of their matches this season, combined with UTC’s solid overall defensive record of just 0.67 goals conceded per match. However, the hosts’ current defensive form provides stronger support for a Goal/Goal scenario.

The projected total of 2.48 goals points to a match with a realistic chance of producing 2–3 goals, but limited potential for a very high scoreline. UTC Cajamarca have conceded just 0.67 goals on average in home matches and kept a clean sheet in 42% of games, although their last five performances were noticeably weaker defensively, with an average of 1.8 goals conceded. Universitario average 1.27 goals per game this season, while their xG stands at 1.35, suggesting they should create chances but do not have the profile of a team that regularly scores three or more goals. Historically, under 3.5 goals has landed in 92% of UTC matches and 64% of Universitario games, while the hosts have not conceded more than two goals in a single match this season. Therefore, Under 3.5 offers the strongest edge: recent form increases the risk of goals, but the season data still clearly argues against four goals being scored.

Universitario arrive in significantly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.8 goals, won 60% of their games, and recorded 2.0 points per match, while UTC Cajamarca have failed to win any of their five fixtures, scored just 0.6 goals per game, and lost 60% of their matches. The visitors have started matches well, leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, whereas the hosts have not led at half-time once during the same period and scored only 0.2 goals per game before the interval. After the restart, Universitario’s form advantage remains evident: they average 1.0 goal, while UTC concede 1.2 goals in this phase of the game. UTC’s home advantage, where they have won 75% of their matches throughout the season and have not conceded before half-time, reduces confidence in the pick; however, the current disparity in effectiveness and form most strongly supports a scenario in which the visitors lead at the break and secure the full-time victory.