UTS Rabat vs Kawkab Marrakech: match statistics

I back the away win (Kawkab Marrakech) based on superior away xG — 1.29 vs home xG 1.06 for UTS. Kawkab have conceded 19 goals this season versus UTS’s 33 and average 1.00 conceded away compared to UTS’s 1.64 conceded per home match, indicating a defensive edge for the visitors. The away side are also in better form: 3 wins in the last 5 and 1.8 points per game over the last 5, while the hosts have 2 wins from 5 and 1.2 points per game; additionally Kawkab scored 8 goals in the last 5 versus UTS’s 7. However, the hosts show higher finishing efficiency (12% conversion with an average of 8.09 shots and 3.09 on target at home) versus Kawkab’s 5% conversion on 11.9 shots per game, and UTS record a high 55% draw rate at home, which increases the likelihood of a shared point. Considering the visitors’ better defense and xG and the hosts’ high draw rate, I assess probabilities as: 50% away win, 35% draw, 15% home win.

I indicate BTTS (Yes) with a 68% probability vs 32% for No Goal because UTS Rabat has a season BTTS rate of 64% vs 50% for Kawkab, and in the last 5 matches BTTS percentages are 60% (UTS) and 80% (Kawkab), which together indicate a strong propensity for both teams to exchange goals. In the last 5 matches UTS averaged 1.4 goals scored and conceded 1.8 per game, while Kawkab averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, so both teams in short form both score and concede. From seasonal averages UTS has 1.36 goals scored per game and 0.82 conceded, whereas Kawkab has 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded; the seasonal offensive edge for UTS is however offset by their worse L5 numbers (1.8 conceded). xG confirms both sides create chances: attacking xG 1.36 (UTS) vs 1.29 (Kawkab) and xG against 1.34 vs 1.30, i.e. around 1.2–1.4 xG per match for both sides. Additionally UTS is more efficient from open play (shot conversion 12% and 3.91 shots on target vs 5% and 2.9 for Kawkab), and since Kawkab has recently improved efficiency (1.6 goals in L5 and 80% BTTS), the strongest signal from the data points to a BTTS scenario.

I set expected goals at 1.36 xG for UTS Rabat and 1.18 xG for Kawkab Marrakech (a compromise between the visitors’ season xG 1.29 and their low season goals average 0.6), giving a total of 2.54 expected goals. In a Poisson model with lambda=2.54 the probability of Over 1.5 is approximately 72% (1 − P(0 or 1) ≈ 0.72), which aligns with seasonal Over1.5 rates: home 73% and away 50%. For the 2.5 line the model gives about a 47% chance for Over 2.5, a compromise between the home season 64% Over2.5 and the away 20%, so the 2.5 line is not clearly in our favor. Over 3.5 is modeled at only ~25% probability, while seasonal Over3.5 is 9% for the home side and 0% for the away, therefore Under 3.5 is more likely. Additionally UTS averages 3.91 shots on target with 12% conversion, whereas Kawkab has 2.9 SoT and 5% conversion, which reinforces the home advantage and makes Over 1.5 the best line to play.

UTS Rabat led at the break in 55% of their matches and average 0.91 goals by half-time versus only 0.2 for Kawkab Marrakech, so the hosts are the favorites after 45 minutes. Over the season UTS record 1.36 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per match, while Kawkab have 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, and the visitors have won only 10% of their away games, which limits their potential for a turnaround. Despite similar xG (1.36 vs 1.29) UTS convert better (conversion rate 12% vs 5%) and register more shots on target (3.91 vs 2.9), increasing the chances of holding a lead and securing the final win. Kawkab do show a tendency to score late (3 goals in minutes 76–90 in the data), therefore I assign 1/1 the highest probability at 33%, 1/X 17%, and a turnaround in favor of the visitors only about 5%.