Vaduz vs Bellinzona: match statistics

I back a home win (Vaduz): the team sits 1st with 20 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses this season. At home Vaduz wins 93% of matches, scores on average 2.57 goals per game and concedes 1.0, has average xG for 1.87 vs xG against 1.19, averages 6.57 on-target shots per match and a conversion rate of 17%. Bellinzona are 10th, with only 4 wins and 18 losses this season; away they score 0.79 goals on average, concede 2.21 and fail to score in 50% of away fixtures. In the last 5 matches the visitors have conceded 16 goals (3.2 per game), while Vaduz in their last 5 have conceded 4 and scored 6, clearly showing the hosts’ defensive and attacking advantage. Based on this I estimate Vaduz’s win probability at around 80%, draw 12% and Bellinzona win 8%.

I back BTTS - Yes (62%) because Bellinzona concedes on average 2.21 goals per away match and as many as 3.2 goals in the last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood of the home side scoring. Vaduz at home scores 1.14 goals per match (1.2 in the last 5), has a season xG of 1.24 and has scored 58 goals this season, so their attack is sufficiently productive to exploit the opponent’s weakness. Bellinzona scores 0.79 goals away on the season, but in the last 5 matches averages 1.4 goals and has only 7% clean sheets away, which suggests they will also score at least once. Season BTTS is 29% for Vaduz and 50% for Bellinzona, so signals are partially conflicting, but recent form (40% BTTS for Vaduz vs 60% for Bellinzona) and Bellinzona’s high average goals conceded point toward both teams scoring. Additionally, both teams generate similar season xG (1.24 vs 1.24) and the league has 52% of matches with BTTS, which further supports the both-teams-to-score scenario.

Both teams have identical attacking xG of 1.24 (Vaduz 1.24, Bellinzona 1.24), while xG against is 1.60 for Vaduz and 1.52 for Bellinzona. I estimate expected goals as the average of a team’s attack and the opponent’s defense: Vaduz 1.38 (average of 1.24 and 1.52), Bellinzona 1.42 (average of 1.24 and 1.60), totaling 2.80. Seasonally, matches with over 1.5 goals occurred in 86% of Vaduz games and 71% of Bellinzona games (average 79%), which strongly supports Over 1.5; additionally the league goals average is 2.86, close to the estimated 2.80. The 2.5 line looks weaker: seasonal Over rates are 57% for Vaduz and 50% for Bellinzona (average 54%), although Bellinzona has had 100% of its last 5 matches over 2.5, which slightly increases the probability of Over 2.5. Considering xG of 2.80, high Over 1.5 rates (86%/71%) and Vaduz’s better shot conversion 11% versus the visitors’ 7%, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Vaduz has a clear advantage in the first half: in the last 5 matches they led at the break in 60% (3 of 5), while Bellinzona did not lead at the break in any of those games (0%). The average goals at half-time are 0.79 for Vaduz versus 0.29 for Bellinzona, and over the full match the hosts score an average of 1.14 goals vs 0.79 for the visitors; additionally Vaduz averages 1.0 points per game while Bellinzona only 0.29 points and has a 0% win rate this season. In their last 5 matches Bellinzona conceded an average of 3.2 goals per game compared to 0.8 conceded by Vaduz, which increases the likelihood that the hosts will maintain a lead at the break and convert it into a win. The xG for both teams is similar (1.24 vs 1.24), but Vaduz has better shot efficiency (conversion 11% vs 7%) and superior form (3 wins in the last 5 matches versus 1 for Bellinzona), therefore the most reliable scenario is Vaduz leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).