Vaduz vs Thun: match statistics

Vaduz have a clear attacking edge at home: they average 3.33 goals per match, along with 17 shots and 7.33 shots on target, while Thun average 2.75 goals, 14 shots and 4.5 shots on target away from home. The hosts tend to control the game more often, enjoying 56% possession compared to the visitors’ 45%, and their average xG stands at 1.87, higher than Thun’s 1.54. Both defenses are vulnerable, with Vaduz conceding 2.00 goals per home game and Thun as many as 2.75, while neither side has kept a clean sheet. Vaduz have won 2 of their last 5 matches, the same as Thun, but they boast a 67% home win rate compared to the visitors’ 50% away win rate. An open game with goals at both ends is expected, but the greater number of chances created and home advantage favor Vaduz.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by current form: Vaduz recorded BTTS in 5 of their last 5 matches, while Thun did so in 3 of 5. During this period, the hosts averaged 2.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, while the visitors scored 1.6 and allowed 1.8 goals per game. Their attacking potential is also confirmed by average xG over the last five matches, standing at 1.56 for Vaduz and 1.61 for Thun, with xG against at 1.83 and 1.66 respectively. Thun are yet to keep a clean sheet in away matches, while Vaduz average 17.33 shots per game at home, giving the hosts a realistic chance of breaking through the opponents’ defense. The risk is Vaduz’s zero-goal record in the available home data, but a run of 12 goals in their last 5 appearances clearly supports the BTTS scenario.

The profile of this match clearly favors goals: the league-wide average is 3.78 goals, while 76% of matches go Over 2.5 goals. Thun averages 2.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded away from home, with all of their matches at this venue featuring at least three goals. In their last five matches, Vaduz scored 12 goals and conceded 11, producing an average of as many as 4.6 goals per game, while the Over 2.5 line landed in 5 of 5 of those matches. The underlying chance-creation potential is also high, with Vaduz averaging 1.74 xG compared to Thun’s 1.93 xG conceded, while the visitors create an average of 1.54 xG against 1.85 xG allowed by the hosts. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even under a more cautious scenario, the poor defensive numbers on both sides significantly reduce the risk of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

Thun have a clearly superior season record: they average 2.75 goals per match compared with Vaduz’s 0.00, while the home side have lost 67% of their matches. Vaduz have not scored before half-time and have conceded an average of 1.33 goals in that period, whereas Thun have averaged 0.75 goals before the break and held the lead in 25% of matches. The visitors’ advantage should grow after the interval, as Thun have averaged 2.00 goals in second halves, while Vaduz have still failed to score a single goal after the break. Although Vaduz’s last five matches have been more productive offensively, with an average of 2.4 goals scored per game, the underlying season data and the hosts’ very poor finishing support Thun leading at half-time and winning at full-time in the HT/FT market (1/1).