Valenciennes vs Caen: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a draw as the most likely outcome. Valenciennes presents weak home form with 55% losses at home, although they average 1.27 goals per match with an xG of 1.74, suggesting unfulfilled potential. Caen, on the other hand, is characterized by a very high percentage of away draws (60%), keeping no clean sheets but scoring regularly (0% FTS). Both teams display similar form in the last 5 matches (0.8 vs 1.0 PPG) and have comparable xG indicators. Valenciennes' high average of shots on target (5.91) and Caen's conversion rate (15%) may balance each other out. Given Caen's tendency to draw on the road and the hosts' instability, I expect the points to be shared.
Valenciennes vs Caen: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Valenciennes played against Caen in National (France). The game was played on February 28, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Valenciennes has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Caen has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Valenciennes scores 1.05 goals per game and allows 1.33. Caen scores 1.14 and allows 1.10. Games in this league average 2.35 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 57% of Valenciennes's games and 57% of Caen's. The Over 2.5 rates are 48% and 38%, compared with league averages of 52% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Valenciennes has the higher season xG average, 1.46 to 1.38 per game. Valenciennes takes 11.9 shots per game, while Caen takes 11.1.
First-half and second-half trends
Valenciennes leads at halftime in 19% of its games and scores 0.71 goals per game after halftime. Caen leads at halftime in 33% and scores 0.62 after halftime.
When the teams score
Valenciennes's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (10 goals). For Caen, it is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
National games average 2.35 goals. Both teams score in 52% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a draw as the most likely outcome. Valenciennes presents weak home form with 55% losses at home, although they average 1.27 goals per match with an xG of 1.74, suggesting unfulfilled potential. Caen, on the other hand, is characterized by a very high percentage of away draws (60%), keeping no clean sheets but scoring regularly (0% FTS). Both teams display similar form in the last 5 matches (0.8 vs 1.0 PPG) and have comparable xG indicators. Valenciennes' high average of shots on target (5.91) and Caen's conversion rate (15%) may balance each other out. Given Caen's tendency to draw on the road and the hosts' instability, I expect the points to be shared.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Valenciennes | Caen | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Caen is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Valenciennes · 1 pts / game - Caen
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Caen is 9% better for: goals scored per game.
1.05 goals / game - Valenciennes · 1.14 goals / game - Caen
Caen is 21% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.33 goals / game - Valenciennes · 1.1 goals / game - Caen
Valenciennes scores in 71% of games (15 of 21 meczów), while Caen keeps a clean sheet in 38% (8 of 21 meczów).
Caen scores in 76% of games (16 of 21 meczów), while Valenciennes keeps a clean sheet in 24% (5 of 21 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Valenciennes
Over / Under - Caen
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Caen is 64% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.9 pts / game - Valenciennes · 1.48 pts / game - Caen
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Valenciennes - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 19% of games and wins 29%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Caen - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 24%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Valenciennes
Caen
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National).
Teams vs league
| Valenciennes | Liga | Caen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.38 | 2.35 | ▼ 2.24 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 52% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 48% | 47% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 30% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | • 71% | 71% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Valenciennes's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Caen. Games average 0.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Valenciennes vs Caen?
The National match finished Valenciennes 2:1 Caen. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Valenciennes vs Caen?
Valenciennes score 1.05 goals per game on average and Caen 1.14. The National average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Valenciennes's matches and 57% of Caen's.
What form are Valenciennes and Caen in?
Over the last 5 games Valenciennes have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Caen 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Valenciennes vs Caen?
The statistical background for Valenciennes vs Caen — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.