Vancouver FC vs Supra du Québec: match statistics

Vancouver averages 0 goals per home match and has failed to score in every home game (100% of home matches without a goal), with all home fixtures ending in defeat. Despite this, the hosts generate a lot of chances — on average 13.67 shots and 4.67 shots on target with xG 1.71 per match — indicating a finishing problem rather than chance creation. Supra du Québec are more efficient away: averaging 11 shots with 5.5 on target, a shot conversion rate of 14% and 1.5 goals away, with a 50% away win rate. Defensively both teams are vulnerable (Vancouver concedes 1.33 goals at home, Supra concedes 1.5 away; xG against 1.32 vs 1.67), suggesting an open game with opportunities at both ends, but the visitors have the edge due to superior finishing. Considering Vancouver’s lack of home goals and Supra’s 14% efficiency, I estimate a 60% probability of an away win, 25% for a draw and 15% for the home side.

Data analysis points to a 'BTTS - Yes' scenario — both teams have 0% clean sheets this season and concede on average 1.0 (Vancouver) and 1.5 (Supra du Québec) goals per game, indicating recurring defensive vulnerabilities. Supra du Québec averages 1.5 goals per game with a high shot conversion rate of 14% despite a low xG_for of 0.68, meaning they can convert limited chances into goals; this increases the visitors' scoring probability. Vancouver generates substantially more chances and xG (average xG_for 1.82 with 17.33 shots and 5.0 shots on target), while the opponent concedes on average 1.67 xG, so the hosts also have a realistic opportunity to score. Historical indicators are mixed — season BTTS rates are 33% for Vancouver and 50% for Supra, and the last 5 matches show 40% for both against a league average of 48% — this provides moderate but meaningful support for the 'Yes' option. Considering 0% clean sheets, average goals conceded of 1.0 and 1.5 and the visitors' high conversion rate, I assess BTTS probability at 65% versus 35% for No Goal; therefore the best pick is 'Yes'.

Based on weighted xG and recent form, I estimate Vancouver should generate about 1.58 expected goals and Supra about 1.23, giving a total expected sum of 2.81 goals. Vancouver creates a lot of chances: season xG 1.82, averaging 17.33 shots and 5.0 on target per match, while Supra has season xG 0.68 but in the last 5 matches posts xG 1.71 and 5.5 on target, suggesting an active, open game. Notable are the differences in finishing efficiency — Vancouver converts at 4% and scores 0.67 goals seasonally, whereas Supra converts at 14% and 1.5 goals seasonally, with Supra conceding on average 1.67 xG and 1.5 goals defensively; this balances the risk and increases the goal potential. Using a Poisson distribution with λ=2.81, the probability of Over 1.5 is about 77%, Over 2.5 ≈53% and Over 3.5 ≈31%, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Supra du Québec is the statistical favorite: they average 1.50 goals per match versus Vancouver FC's 0.67 and have a 50% win rate compared to the home side's 33%. Vancouver creates more chances (xG 1.82 vs 0.68 and 17.33 shots per match vs 11.0), but their finishing is poor — 4% conversion versus 14% for the visitors, so the chance advantage does not translate into goals. At Half-Time the data favors Supra: they led at the break in 50% of matches, conceded 0.0 goals on average before the break and have 100% clean sheets at Half-Time, while Vancouver has never led at the break (0%). Considering the visitors’ higher win percentage (50% vs 33%), better efficiency (14% vs 4%) and strong Half-Time performances, the strongest scenario is Supra leading at the break and winning the match (2/2).